PP日报：大幅高开后震荡下行-20260310

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - As of the week ending March 6, the downstream operating rate of PP rebounded 9.13 percentage points to 45.87% week-on-week. After the Spring Festival holiday, downstream enterprises gradually resumed production but had not returned to pre - holiday levels. On March 10, new maintenance devices such as the second line of Guangzhou Petrochemical were added, reducing the PP enterprise operating rate to around 76%, and the production ratio of standard-grade drawn wire remained at around 27%. Petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons during the Spring Festival and has been continuously decreasing. Currently, it is at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years. The situation in the Middle East has affected the energy - chemical industry. Although PP does not rely on Middle East imports, its upstream depends on Middle East liquefied petroleum gas. The shortage of raw materials has led to increased load reduction of olefin plants at home and abroad. The recent sharp drop in crude oil prices has driven down PP prices. It is expected that PP will fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption after the festival and the situation in the Middle East [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The downstream operating rate of PP rebounded 9.13 percentage points to 45.87% week - on - week as of the week ending March 6. After the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises gradually resumed production but had not returned to pre - holiday levels. On March 10, new maintenance devices were added, reducing the PP enterprise operating rate to around 76%, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawn wire remained at around 27%. Petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons during the Spring Festival and has been continuously decreasing. The situation in the Middle East has affected the energy - chemical industry. The shortage of raw materials has led to increased load reduction of olefin plants at home and abroad. The recent sharp drop in crude oil prices has driven down PP prices. It is expected that PP will fluctuate at a high level [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2605 contract opened significantly higher and then decreased in position and oscillated downward. The lowest price was 7,500 yuan/ton, the highest was 8,727 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 7,820 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 2.34%. The position decreased by 116,215 lots to 363,820 lots [2]. - Spot: PP spot prices in all regions declined across the board. The price of drawn wire was reported at 7,470 - 8,580 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On March 10, new maintenance devices such as the second line of Guangzhou Petrochemical were added, reducing the PP enterprise operating rate to around 76%, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawn wire remained at around 27% [4]. - Demand: As of the week ending March 6, the downstream operating rate of PP rebounded 9.13 percentage points to 45.87% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises gradually resumed production but had not returned to pre - holiday levels [4]. - Inventory: Petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons during the Spring Festival. On Tuesday, the early petrochemical inventory increased by 500 tons to 800,000 tons, 50,000 tons lower than the same lunar period last year. Currently, it is at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years [4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 05 contract dropped to $93/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $20/ton week - on - week to $920/ton [4].