热卷日报：震荡偏弱-20260310

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term view of "oscillating weakly" for the hot - rolled coil market [1][6] Core Viewpoints - The hot - rolled coil market is in a game stage of "weak reality (inventory accumulation, weak domestic demand) and strong expectation (export support, policy benefits)". The price increase depends on demand recovery and policy implementation. The improvement of export profit, the production resilience of steel mills and policy expectations form the bottom support, and the downward space is limited. The key in the medium - term is the recovery intensity of terminal demand [6] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The trading volume of the main contract of hot - rolled coil futures on Tuesday was 414,803 lots, a significant reduction compared with the previous trading day. The short - term average daily line broke through the 5 - day moving average of around 3235 and the 30 - day moving average of 3251, with the medium - term pressure at the 60 - day moving average of around 3266. The position decreased by 22,947 lots [1] - Spot price: The price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, a mainstream area, was reported at 3250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan compared with the previous trading day [2] - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was - 6 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - Supply side: The actual weekly output was 3.0111 million tons, a decrease of 85,000 tons (- 2.75%) compared with the previous week, with a slight contraction in production [4] - Demand side: The apparent consumption was 2.8157 million tons, a decrease of 97,400 tons compared with the previous week, indicating that the post - holiday demand recovery was less than expected. In absolute terms, it was still at a medium - to - low level in the same period of history, and the pattern of weak reality remained unchanged. The actual start - up of downstream manufacturing and automobile terminals still needed to be verified [4] - Inventory side: The social inventory was 3.8161 million tons, an increase of 242,400 tons (+ 6.78%) compared with the previous week, with continuous inventory accumulation. The steel mill inventory was 900,800 tons, a decrease of 47,000 tons (- 4.96%) compared with the previous week, with a reduction in in - plant inventory. The total inventory was 4.7169 million tons, an increase of 146,800 tons (+ 3.21%) compared with the previous week, and the overall inventory was still increasing. The inventory level in 2026 was higher than in previous years, and the inventory pressure still existed [4] - Policy side: On March 5, 2026, the National Two Sessions were held. The government work report proposed to issue 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and arrange 4.4 trillion yuan of special bonds to strengthen the support for infrastructure and "two new" projects, boosting the medium - and long - term confidence in the market. However, the current manufacturing PMI was still in the contraction range, downstream orders had not seen substantial improvement, and it would take time for policies to be transmitted to the hot - rolled coil demand side, making it difficult to reverse the high - inventory pattern in the short term [4][5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Supply contraction, demand resilience, and policy support ("15th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment) [6] - Bearish factors: Slow demand realization, drag from the raw material end, price suppression due to inventory accumulation, and increased macro - level disturbances [6] Short - term View Summary - With the rise and fall of crude oil, the hot - rolled coil market oscillated weakly. In the short term, the support was around the 30 - day and 5 - day moving averages, and the pressure was around the high point of this week. After the sentiment subsided, it would return to the fundamentals, and it was expected to oscillate weakly. In the future, attention should be paid to the inventory reduction speed in mid - to - late March, the resumption of work in the manufacturing industry and the realization of orders, and the changes in supply - side production [6]