焦煤日报：能化板块回调-20260310

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report - The coking coal market opened low and closed down nearly 4%. The current fundamental situation is weak, and the market is expected to be mainly volatile and weak. However, due to frequent geopolitical news in the Middle East, cautious operation is recommended [1]. - The domestic mines are gradually resuming work, with a significant increase in the operating load by 20%. After the holiday, the inventory of coking coal mines increased by 286,000 tons, while independent coking enterprises and steel mills continued to reduce their inventory, with steel mills reducing 168,200 tons and independent coking enterprises reducing about 494,100 tons [1]. - The operating load of steel mills has declined, and the resumption of production after the holiday has fallen short of expectations. The current operating rate is 77.71%. Steel mills are mainly focused on digesting their own inventory, resulting in a low overall demand for upstream products. One round of price cuts has been implemented, and a second round is expected [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Coking coal opened low and trended down, closing with a nearly 4% decline. The market's reaction to the possible cease - fire in the war led to a significant decline in the energy and chemical sector, and coking coal also declined synchronously [1]. Spot Data - The self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 main coking raw coal is 1,060 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot price in Jiexiu is reported at 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2]. - The closing price of the futures main contract is 1,121.5 yuan/ton, and the basis in Shanxi Jiexiu is 128.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 46.5 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [2]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply data: From February 27th to March 5th, the coking coal operating rate of 523 domestic sample mines was 82.32%, a month - on - month increase of 14.08 percentage points; the daily average output of refined coking coal was 744,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 98,800 tons [4]. - Demand data: From March 1st to March 5th, the daily average output of downstream independent coking enterprises was 639,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 35,000 tons; the daily average output of coke from 247 steel mills was 470,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 2,275,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 569,000 tons [5].