焦煤、焦炭日报-20260310

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The sharp rise in oil and gas prices drives up the price of thermal coal as an alternative energy source, which in turn supports coking coal. The price center of coking coal is passively lifted, and funds and sentiment flow into coking coal futures, pushing up its price. Currently, the fundamental factors of coking coal are secondary, and funds and sentiment amplify price elasticity. Before the conflict eases or ends, coking coal prices may follow the upward trend of oil and gas. It is advisable to wait for a pullback and then go long on dips [4]. Summary by Directory Market Information - Futures Prices: The prices of coking coal and coke futures contracts all increased. For example, the JM01 coking coal futures price rose from 1426 to 1468, and the J01 coke futures price rose from 1855.5 to 1906 [2]. - Spot Prices: Some coking coal and coke spot prices increased. For instance, the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal at the port increased by 40 to 1060, and the price of port quasi - first - grade (wet quenching) coke increased by 10 to 1480 [2]. - Warehouse Receipts: The warehouse receipts of coking coal and coke also changed. For example, the Mongolian 5 coking coal warehouse receipt increased by 47 to 1221, and the port spot (wet quenching) coke warehouse receipt increased by 11 to 1591 [2]. - Basis: The basis of coking coal and coke showed different values for different contracts and varieties [2]. - Transportation Prices: The transportation prices of coking coal and coke remained stable [2]. Market Judgement - Trading Strategy - Single - side: It is recommended to wait and see due to large fluctuations. From the perspective of valuation and risk - return ratio, one can also go long on dips. In the medium term, it is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations, and it is advisable to conduct band trading [5]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [6]. - Options: Take profit on selling out - of - the - money put options [7]. - Related Prices: The report provides the warehouse receipt prices of coke and coking coal, such as the 1591 yuan/ton for Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade (wet quenching) coke warehouse receipt and 1170 yuan/ton for Shanxi coking coal warehouse receipt [8]. - Important Information - Some coal prices in the Shanxi Lvliang area rebounded. For example, the price of medium - sulfur lean coal increased by 50 to 1170 yuan/ton, and the price of medium - sulfur main coking coal increased by 30 to 1190 yuan/ton [10]. - The import of thermal coal continued to rise. The bid price of 3800 - calorie coal was 69.72 US dollars CIF, and the terminal had not responded. The arrival cost increased significantly, and attention should be paid to RKAB and the international situation [10]. Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the coke comprehensive absolute price index, Mongolian 5 clean coal price, coking coal basis, coke price index, etc., showing the price trends from 2021 to 2026 [12][14][18]