螺纹日报：震荡偏弱-20260310

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a rating of "Oscillating Weakly" for the steel industry [1] Core Viewpoints - After the rally and subsequent decline of crude oil, the black market has also declined. The market will focus on the support near the 5 - day and 30 - day moving averages and the pressure near this week's high. After the sentiment fades, the market will return to fundamental supply - demand trading, and it is expected to maintain an oscillating weakly pattern. The supply side has started to pick up slightly after the holiday, which supports prices to some extent. The real - estate policies are mainly for inventory reduction and stability, with limited demand growth space, which restricts the upside. The future focus is on the data of apparent demand and whether it can continue to recover, which will drive inventory reduction. The core of the medium - term trend is the recovery strength of terminal demand, especially the actual construction situation of real estate and infrastructure. If macro - policies drive downstream demand to recover beyond expectations, prices are expected to rise further; if demand remains weak, high inventory will still suppress prices [5] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - Futures Price: On Tuesday, the position of the main rebar contract decreased by 9,469 lots. The trading volume shrank significantly compared with the previous trading day, with 795,516 lots. In terms of the daily moving average, it briefly broke through the 5 - day moving average of 3,091 in the short - term, was near the 30 - day moving average of 3,092 in the medium - term, and was under pressure near the 60 - day moving average of 3,108. With the rally and decline of crude oil, the market returned to fundamentals [1] - Spot Price: The spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar in the mainstream areas was 3,220 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 112 yuan/ton to the spot price [2] Fundamental Data - Supply - demand Situation - Supply: In the week of March 5, 2026, the rebar production was 1.7331 million tons, an increase of 82,100 tons compared with the previous week, indicating a recovery in steel mills' production enthusiasm [3] - Demand: In the week of March 5, 2026, the apparent demand was 982,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 176,900 tons, mainly driven by post - holiday resumption of work. However, it was still at a low level compared with the same period in history, indicating that the demand recovery was less than expected. The downward trend in the real - estate industry has not reversed, and the long - term demand is still declining year - on - year [3] - Inventory: Social inventory was 6.3775 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 699,900 tons (+12.33%); steel mill inventory was 2.3793 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 50,900 tons (+2.19%); total inventory was 8.7568 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 750,800 tons (+9.38%), indicating a significant increase in overall inventory pressure. It is expected to enter the de - stocking stage in 2 - 3 weeks, and the inventory inflection point is approaching [3] - Cost and Profit: The steel price valuation is at a low level. Geopolitical factors have pushed up oil prices and shipping costs, providing support for commodity prices [3] - Macroeconomic Aspect: The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress held on March 5, 2026, sent positive signals. The government work report proposed measures such as issuing 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, arranging 4.4 trillion yuan of local government special bonds, and implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. The market's expectation of infrastructure and real - estate support has increased, and the sentiment has received phased support [4] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish Factors: Low steel price valuation, geopolitical factors pushing up costs, policy support expectations, implementation of steel mill production cuts, and cost support restoration [5] - Bearish Factors: Persistent weak terminal demand, weakening cost support, continuous inventory accumulation, slow de - stocking speed, and a bearish capital position structure [5]