塑料日报：大幅高开后震荡下行-20260310

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - On March 10, 2026, new maintenance devices such as Sinochem Quanzhou HDPE were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 89%, currently at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE increased by 10.4 percentage points to 28.62% week-on-week as of the week of March 6. After the Spring Festival, downstream factories gradually resumed production but have not returned to pre - holiday levels. The petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons during the Spring Festival and has been decreasing since then, currently at a neutral level in recent years. The cost of crude oil has dropped significantly. New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year of BASF (Guangdong) FDPE and 300,000 tons/year of Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA were put into operation in January 2026, with no new capacity planned for the first quarter. The domestic supply - demand pattern of plastics has improved, and there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter - involution. The Middle East situation boosts the energy - chemical industry. Although the recent sharp decline in crude oil prices has led to a decline in plastic prices, it is expected that plastics will fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption after the festival and the Middle East situation [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - On March 10, new maintenance devices such as Sinochem Quanzhou HDPE were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 89%, currently at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE increased by 10.4 percentage points to 28.62% week - on - week as of the week of March 6. After the Spring Festival, downstream factories gradually resumed production but have not returned to pre - holiday levels. The petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons during the Spring Festival and has been decreasing since then, currently at a neutral level in recent years. The cost of crude oil has dropped significantly. New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year of BASF (Guangdong) FDPE and 300,000 tons/year of Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA were put into operation in January 2026, with no new capacity planned for the first quarter. The domestic supply - demand pattern of plastics has improved, and there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter - involution. The Middle East situation boosts the energy - chemical industry. Although the recent sharp decline in crude oil prices has led to a decline in plastic prices, it is expected that plastics will fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption after the festival and the Middle East situation [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastic 2605 contract opened sharply higher, then reduced positions and oscillated downward. The lowest price was 7,350 yuan/ton, the highest was 8,627 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 7,767 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.87%. The position decreased by 97,004 lots to 313,387 lots [2]. - Spot: The PE spot market declined across the board, with price changes ranging from - 300 to - 2,000 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 7,670 - 8,970 yuan/ton, LDPE at 10,330 - 11,510 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 8,300 - 9,700 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On March 10, new maintenance devices such as Sinochem Quanzhou HDPE were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 89%, currently at a neutral level [4]. - Demand: As of the week of March 6, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 10.4 percentage points to 28.62% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, downstream factories gradually resumed production but have not returned to pre - holiday levels, showing seasonal changes in the overall downstream operating rate of PE [4]. - Inventory: The petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons during the Spring Festival. On Tuesday, the early petrochemical inventory increased by 5,000 tons to 800,000 tons, 50,000 tons lower than the same lunar period last year, currently at a neutral level in recent years [4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 05 contract dropped to $93/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene increased by $80/ton week - on - week to $950/ton, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene increased by $70/ton week - on - week to $920/ton [4].