沥青日报：冲高后大幅回落-20260310

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt price is expected to fluctuate significantly following the crude oil price in the near term, and investors are advised to participate with caution while paying attention to the developments in the Middle East situation [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Last week, the asphalt operating rate rebounded 1.9 percentage points to 23.3% week-on-week, 3.1 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [1][5] - In March 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to reach 2.187 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 251,000 tons or 13.0%, and a year-on-year decrease of 43,000 tons or 1.9% [1] - After the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries gradually resumed work, and the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased. The road asphalt operating rate increased 4 percentage points to 8% week-on-week, still lower than the level at the end of January [1][5] - Last week, refineries in Shandong resumed production, and the continuous price increase drove up the downstream stocking sentiment, resulting in a significant increase in shipments. The national shipment volume increased 19.86% to 156,300 tons week-on-week, at a relatively low level [1] - After the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries have not fully resumed production, and asphalt factory inventories have increased significantly, but the asphalt refinery inventory rate is still at the lowest level in recent years [1][5] - The flow of Venezuelan heavy crude oil to domestic refineries is severely restricted, which will affect domestic asphalt production and costs. There are reports that Vitol China is offering Venezuelan crude oil at a discount of $5 per barrel, significantly smaller than the $13 per barrel discount in December 2025. Although the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased, it is expected that the flow of Venezuelan crude oil to the Indian market will increase, and China's imports of Venezuelan crude oil are still significantly lower than before the US intervention. Additionally, the attacks on Iran by the US and Israel will affect the supply of Iranian raw materials, and the market is worried about a shortage of raw materials for domestic refineries in March [1] - China imports relatively little Iranian asphalt, and imported asphalt from the Middle East such as the UAE and Iraq accounts for about half of the total asphalt imports, but only about 6% compared to China's asphalt production [1] - Henan Fengli plans to resume production this week, and the asphalt operating rate will increase slightly. After the Lantern Festival, terminal demand will gradually recover, and the supply and demand of asphalt will both increase [1] Futures and Spot Market - Today, the asphalt futures contract 2604 fell 4.78% to 3,746 yuan per ton, below the 5-day moving average, with a minimum price of 3,523 yuan per ton and a maximum price of 4,153 yuan per ton. The trading volume decreased by 24,741 to 54,677 lots [2] - The mainstream market price in Shandong fell to 3,720 yuan per ton, and the basis of the asphalt 04 contract rose to -26 yuan per ton, at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, individual refineries in the north resumed production, and the asphalt operating rate rebounded 1.9 percentage points to 23.3% week-on-week, 3.1 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [5] - From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased 5.9% year-on-year. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate increased 0.1 percentage point compared to the period from January to October 2025, but it was still negative [5] - From January to December 2025, the actual completed fixed asset investment in the road transport industry decreased 6.0% year-on-year, continuing to decline from -4.7% from January to November 2025, still in a situation of cumulative year-on-year negative growth [5] - From January to December 2025, the completed fixed asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased 2.2% year-on-year, continuing to decline from -1.1% from January to November 2025 [5] - As of the week of March 6, after the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries gradually resumed work, and the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased. The road asphalt operating rate increased 4 percentage points to 8% week-on-week, still lower than the level at the end of January [5] - As of the week of March 6, the asphalt refinery inventory rate increased 1.3 percentage points to 17.7% compared to the week of February 27. After the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries have not fully resumed production, and asphalt factory inventories have increased significantly, but the asphalt refinery inventory rate is still at the lowest level in recent years [5]