铁矿日报：供需两端存回升预期-20260310

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market may experience high-level narrow-range shock consolidation in the short term, with limited downward space. Attention should be paid to further tests near the upper pressure level [5] Summary by Directory Market行情态势回顾 - The main contract of iron ore futures fluctuated within the day, closing at 784 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan/ton or 0.06% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 296,000 lots, the open interest was 468,000 lots, and the settled funds were 8.071 billion yuan. The short-term support below is around 770, and the short-term pressure above is around 795. In the near future, it may face pressure near the upper pressure and fall into a certain narrow-range shock consolidation [1] - The mainstream spot varieties at the port, Qingdao Port PB powder, fell 2 to 771, and Super Special powder fell 2 to 656. The main swap was 103.9 (+1.1) US dollars/ton. The swap continued to strengthen, while the spot declined slightly [1] - The price of Qingdao Port PB powder converted to the futures price was 801.6 yuan/ton, with a basis of 17.6 yuan/ton, and the basis shrank. The spread between iron ore contracts 5 and 9 was 27 yuan, and the spread between contracts 9 and 1 was 18 yuan [1] Fundamental Analysis - Overseas mine shipments decreased significantly on a month-on-month basis, with declines in both Australia, Brazil, and non-mainstream countries. The arrivals this period increased significantly, as the previous high shipments gradually arrived at the port. On the demand side, there were more blast furnace overhauls, and some areas implemented environmental protection restrictions during the Two Sessions. The pig iron output this period decreased significantly on a month-on-month basis, the steel mill profitability rate declined, and the resumption of pig iron production was postponed. However, it is likely to recover seasonally later. Attention should be paid to the support strength of peak-season demand [2] - In terms of inventory, the iron ore port inventory increased slightly on a month-on-month basis, the berthing inventory increased, and the mill inventory decreased slightly. With the convening of the National Two Sessions, there are still expectations of disturbances in supply and the macro environment. Attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment [2] - The supply shipments have recovered, but there are still expectations of disturbances. The pressure of high inventory is difficult to relieve in the short term. The convening of the Two Sessions combined with many geopolitical disturbances, and there is still uncertainty in the macro environment. Recently, commodities have shown strong performance. If the macro disturbances weaken, the fundamental pressure on iron ore will still be relatively large [2] Macro Level - Domestically, after the release of the "Report", the current market's policy expectation of the government's active policy efforts in the first half of the year to support the "15th Five-Year Plan" economic opening will gradually converge, and it will gradually shift to the verification stage of real data later [4] - Overseas, for the expectation of the US dollar monetary policy, it is important to determine which stage the current geopolitical conflict is in. This will affect the market's judgment duration of inflation and the economy. The Fed will only react when the long-term inflation expectation changes. The Fed is really considering whether the geopolitical event will evolve from a one-time energy shock to a more persistent inflation increase expectation. It may be too early to talk about the duration of the war at the current time. It is recommended to use the neutral scenario as the benchmark scenario for the construction of the asset allocation portfolio. In the short term, it is recommended to appropriately manage the positions of risk assets such as equities and commodities [4] Viewpoint Summary - Overall, in terms of the iron ore fundamentals, there are disturbances in the shipment end, and the pressure of high inventory is difficult to relieve in the short term. On the demand side, the pig iron output has decreased, and the resumption of production has been postponed. Iron ore still shows a positive basis and the BACK structure continues. The short-term downward space is limited for the time being, and it may fall into high-level narrow-range shock consolidation. Attention should be paid to further tests near the upper pressure level [5]