——2026年3月流动性月报：3月政府存款与现金回流能带来多大贡献？-20260310

Group 1 - The report indicates that the government deposits increased significantly in January, reaching a historical high of 6.5 trillion, which was higher than expected, contributing to a decrease in the excess reserve ratio to 1.1% [3][16][24] - The report forecasts that the broad fiscal deficit in February may reach 1.28 trillion, which is among the highest levels for the same period in previous years, with government deposits expected to decline by approximately 390 billion [4][24][33] - The report highlights that the central bank's monetary policy remains supportive, with net liquidity injections through various tools, including MLF and reverse repos, totaling 9 trillion in February, which has helped maintain a stable funding environment [5][43][44] Group 2 - The report anticipates that in March, the broad fiscal deficit could be at its highest level for the year, with government deposits expected to decrease by about 830 billion, which may provide liquidity support [7][57][72] - It is projected that the issuance of currency in March will decrease by approximately 1.16 trillion, primarily due to the timing of the Spring Festival, which will impact liquidity positively [7][57][72] - The report notes that the demand for credit is expected to remain weak, with March's credit issuance estimated at around 3.20 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease [7][73][75]