粕类日报：宏观扰动增加，盘面宽幅震荡-20260310

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: "Meal Daily Report - March 10, 2026" [1] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [2] - Date: March 10, 2026 [3] Group 2: Market Review - US soybean futures declined due to the sharp drop in crude oil prices. South American selling pressure increased, but the overall impact was limited. Macro factors were the main influence on the market [3]. - Domestic soybean meal futures also declined significantly, affected by the drop in crude oil prices and limited cost - side support. Soybean and soybean meal inventories remained at relatively high levels [3]. - Rapeseed meal futures also declined significantly. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was stronger in the near - term and weaker in the far - term. The inter - month spread of soybean meal was stronger, while that of rapeseed meal declined due to expected supply increases [3]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis International Market - US soybean ending stocks remained around 350 million bushels. Export inspection data was average, and the overall supply - demand situation was relatively loose [4]. - In South America, some institutions lowered Brazil's soybean production, mainly in the southern Rio Grande do Sul state. However, the impact on the final output was expected to be limited. Brazil's old - crop exports and crushing were good, with significant export growth, but the subsequent crushing drive might be limited. Argentina's old - crop demand was good, with increased crushing and exports, but the new - crop production decreased due to weather disturbances [4]. Domestic Market - Domestic spot supply was gradually tightening. Oil mill operating rates might decline after a short - term increase. Market transactions were average, and inventories were decreasing. As of March 6, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 1.833 million tons, the operating rate was 50.47%, soybean inventory was 5.7267 million tons (a decrease of 4.03% from the previous week and an increase of 54.73% year - on - year), and soybean meal inventory was 760,500 tons (an increase of 8.46% from the previous week and an increase of 28.27% year - on - year) [5]. - Domestic rapeseed meal demand was average. Oil mill operating rates increased, but overall supply remained low. Particle rapeseed meal inventory was still at a relatively high level, and there was still supply pressure. As of the week of March 6, coastal oil mill rapeseed inventory was 121,000 tons (a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous week), and rapeseed meal inventory was 15,000 tons (an increase of 18,000 tons from the previous week) [5]. Group 4: Logical Analysis - US soybeans were greatly affected by international crude oil, and the decline increased today. The main influencing factor might be related to biodiesel. The impact of fundamentals on US soybeans was gradually decreasing [6]. - South American quotes were slightly adjusted, but the overall change was limited. It would take time for inland pressure to be transmitted to the export market [6]. - The domestic soybean meal fundamental outlook was bearish, but the main influencing factor was still macro. When crude oil prices were strong, the decline of the futures price was restricted. The uncertainty mainly lay in future soybean and soybean meal supply, but the current high inventory was expected to limit the impact. The unilateral and inter - month spreads of soybean meal were under pressure due to the expected tightening of soybean supply [6]. - Domestic rapeseed meal generally followed soybean meal. Although the supply of rapeseed increased, the inventory was still relatively low, and the price was not likely to drop significantly. The international market price was high, and future demand might improve. Rapeseed meal was expected to be strong, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal would fluctuate widely. The inter - month spreads were expected to fluctuate [6]. Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The futures price is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - Arbitrage: Narrow the spread of MRM09 [7]. - Options: Wait and see [7] Group 6: Price and Spread Data Futures and Spot Basis - For soybean meal, different contracts (01, 05, 09) had different closing prices and price changes. Spot basis in different regions (Tianjin, Dongguan, Zhangjiagang, Rizhao) also changed [3]. - For rapeseed meal, different contracts (01, 05, 09) had different closing prices and price changes. Spot basis in different regions (Nantong, Guangdong, Guangxi) also changed [3]. Inter - month Spreads - For soybean meal, the 15 - spread was 93 (down 4 from the previous day), the 59 - spread was - 49 (up 5 from the previous day), and the 91 - spread was - 44 (down 1 from the previous day) [3]. - For rapeseed meal, the 15 - spread was - 23 (down 2 from the previous day), the 59 - spread was - 40 (down 11 from the previous day), and the 91 - spread was 63 (up 13 from the previous day) [3]. Cross - variety Spreads - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal for the 05 contract was 571 (up from the previous day), and for the 09 contract was 580 (down from the previous day). The oil - meal ratio for the 01 contract was 2.840 (down from the previous day) [3]. Spot Spreads - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 573 (up 49 from the previous day), the spread between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal was 130 (down 21 from the previous day), and the spread between soybean meal and sunflower meal was 933 (up 18 from the previous day) [3] Group 7: Soybean Pressing Profit - The pressing profit from Brazilian soybeans varied by shipping date. For example, for the May shipment, the spot pressing profit was - 76.35, a decrease of 12.18 from the previous day [8].