基于金油比宏观友好度评分指标：油价大幅上涨后冲高回落，金油比中期会走向何方？

Core Insights - The report highlights that the international oil price surged at the end of February due to the US-Iran conflict, followed by a volatile correction, leading to a rapid convergence of the gold-oil ratio [1] - The gold-oil ratio macro-friendliness score, influenced by factors such as the US dollar index, real interest rates on US Treasury bonds, and the US manufacturing PMI, shows a strong correlation (over 0.8) with the actual trend of the gold-oil ratio [1][4] - Based on Bloomberg's macro consensus data, it is anticipated that the gold-oil ratio macro-friendliness may decline in the next six months, indicating a potential mean reversion of the gold-oil price [1][4] Historical Trends of Gold-Oil Ratio - Historically, the gold-oil ratio has fluctuated within the range of 15-25 times, with seven significant upward breaches since 1990, primarily driven by declining oil prices due to oversupply and demand drops [2][11] - Notable instances include February 1994, December 1998, February 2009, January 2015, February 2016, March 2020, and the second half of 2025, where the ratio surged due to various geopolitical and economic factors [11][12][13][14] Core Pricing Logic of Gold-Oil Ratio - The US dollar index is positively correlated with the gold-oil ratio, as a stronger dollar exerts more pressure on oil prices than on gold prices, leading to an increase in the gold-oil ratio [3][20] - Real interest rates on US Treasury bonds are negatively correlated with the gold-oil ratio, as rising rates suppress gold prices more significantly than oil prices due to gold's financial attributes [3][27] - The US manufacturing PMI is also negatively correlated with the gold-oil ratio, as economic expansion typically boosts oil demand while exerting pressure on gold prices [3][32] Gold-Oil Ratio Macro-Friendliness - The macro-friendliness score for the gold-oil ratio is constructed using a weighted formula that incorporates the US dollar index, real interest rates, manufacturing PMI, and dollar credit, demonstrating a strong explanatory power for the gold-oil price changes [4][41] - The correlation coefficient between the macro-friendliness score and the gold-oil ratio from June 2005 to February 2026 is 0.82, indicating a robust relationship [4][44] Outlook and Configuration Suggestions - The report suggests that the macro-friendliness score is subject to change based on evolving market conditions, and sensitivity analysis can help predict the impact of macro events on the gold-oil ratio [51] - Positive scenarios that could lead to an increase in the macro-friendliness score include strengthening dollar credit and weak oil demand, while negative scenarios include a decline in dollar credit and strong manufacturing expansion [51][52]