双粕跟随原油回落，中东局势发展仍是主导因素

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of double粕 (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) and oils followed the decline of crude oil, and the development of the Middle - East situation remains the dominant factor. The prices of these products are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the development of the Middle - East situation [1][5][6]. - Corn experienced a high - level correction due to macro - emotional disturbances. In the short term, it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, and in the medium - term, it is generally bullish [6][7]. - The supply of live pigs remains loose, and the price is weak. In the short - term, it is expected to be volatile and weak, and in the long - term, the price may bottom out and pick up in the second half of 2026 [8]. - Natural rubber rebounded slightly after the expected easing of the Middle - East situation. The market is expected to be volatile [9][11]. - Synthetic rubber's fluctuations follow the oil price and showed a correction. If the crude oil price continues to rise, the market will be short - term strong, but attention should be paid to the rapid change of geopolitical sentiment [12]. - Cotton continued to fluctuate slightly, waiting for new news. In the medium - and long - term, it is recommended to allocate more [12]. - Sugar prices fluctuated due to the sharp short - term fluctuations of oil prices. The market is expected to be volatile [13][14]. - Pulp futures continued to decline, and the relative weakness remained unchanged. It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [15]. - Double - gum paper fluctuated as commodities corrected. The market is expected to show a trend of rising first and then falling from March to May [16][17]. - Logs' prices were under pressure as the geopolitical situation cooled. The market is expected to be volatile [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils - View: Oils followed the crude oil to adjust and consolidate. - Logic: Due to the US President's remarks on the Middle - East geopolitical issue, the market expects the war situation to ease, and the crude oil price dropped rapidly, affecting the vegetable oil price. The fundamentals of the vegetable oil market are related to the Middle - East situation. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil in February 2026 were lower than expected, and the inventory was higher than expected. The market should continue to pay attention to the USDA report, the implementation of the US biodiesel policy, and Indonesia's biodiesel policy adjustment. - Outlook: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to be volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the phased low - level buying strategy [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - View: Double粕 followed the crude oil to decline, and the development of the Middle - East situation remains the dominant factor. - Logic: Internationally, the market's concern about the risk of the Strait of Hormuz interruption has decreased, and the crude oil price has fallen. The adjustment of the USDA's March supply - demand report is expected to be limited. The progress of China's policy - based procurement before Trump's visit to China at the end of the month and the announcement of the US biodiesel details this month may limit the decline of US soybeans. Domestically, affected by the weakening of the external crude oil price and US soybean futures price, the import cost has decreased, and the market sentiment has cooled. The follow - up trend still needs to pay attention to the evolution of the Middle - East situation and whether the imported soybeans will be resold. - Outlook: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to be volatile [1][5][6]. 3.1.3 Corn - View: Affected by macro - emotional disturbances, corn experienced a high - level correction. - Logic: Most commodities declined today. Affected by macro - funds and emotions, corn also corrected. In terms of fundamentals, the upstream grain sales progress is 68%. In March, with the warming of the temperature, the wet grain supply increased, but the supply pressure is limited. The downstream deep - processing and feed enterprises have a demand for replenishing inventory. The supply increase is slower than the demand for replenishment, and the industry is in a tight and high - turnover state. - Outlook: It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. In March, the wet grain is expected to increase gradually, and the spot price increase is expected to narrow. In the medium - term, based on the tight annual balance sheet, corn is generally bullish [6][7]. 3.1.4 Live Pigs - View: The supply remains loose, and the price is weak. - Logic: In the short - term, the breeding end did not complete the slaughter plan in February, and the daily planned slaughter volume in March increased. In the medium - term, the supply pressure is still large. In the long - term, the process of reducing production capacity is not smooth. The demand is in the off - season after the festival, the pig - meat price ratio and the fat - lean price difference have declined, and the average weight of pigs and the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens have increased. - Outlook: It is expected to be volatile and weak. In the first half of the year, the industry is recommended to pay attention to the hedging opportunity of short - selling at high prices. It is expected that the pig cycle will bottom out and pick up in the second half of 2026 [8]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - View: After the expected easing of the Middle - East situation, natural rubber rebounded slightly. - Logic: The short - term trading logic is still related to the Middle - East geopolitics. Although it has little impact on the supply of this variety, the tire orders to the Middle - East are affected, which is negative for the price. The market sentiment is weak, and it is difficult to rise further in the short - term. The fundamentals are difficult to show positive factors. However, due to the warm market expectation, the decline range is limited. The inventory pressure is large, but it is about to enter the low - production period, and the downstream demand remains, so the price is easy to rise and difficult to fall. - Outlook: The fundamentals change little, and the market is expected to be volatile [9][11]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - View: The fluctuations follow the oil price, and it showed a correction yesterday. - Logic: Affected by the decline of crude oil, the price of BR (butadiene rubber) declined. The short - term trading logic has switched to geopolitics. As long as the crude oil remains strong, even if the fundamentals of BR are weak, the downstream has shown signs of negative feedback after the sharp rise of butadiene, and the BR has a premium over NR again, the price is easy to rise and difficult to fall. The price of butadiene rose sharply last week due to geopolitical factors, and the supply - side support of the butadiene market has strengthened. - Outlook: The market follows the sector sentiment. If the crude oil price continues to rise, the market will be short - term strong, but attention should be paid to the rapid change of geopolitical sentiment [12]. 3.1.7 Cotton - View: It continued to fluctuate slightly, waiting for new news. - Logic: The market entered a consolidation period last week. On the one hand, the bullish factors in the cotton market were fully traded in the first week after the Spring Festival, and there is no new driving force. On the other hand, affected by the conflict between the US and Iran, funds flowed into hot varieties, and the cotton price lacked the driving force to rise. The domestic cotton commercial inventory is in the de - stocking period, and the fundamentals are good, which supports the cotton price. The overseas supply and demand are loose this year, and it is expected to improve next year. The external market has room for upward movement in the long - term. - Outlook: It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. It is recommended to allocate more in the medium - and long - term [12]. 3.1.8 Sugar - View: The sharp short - term fluctuations of oil prices drove the sugar price to fluctuate. - Logic: In the long - term, the internal and external sugar prices are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly at the bottom. In the short - term, affected by the large fluctuations of oil prices, the market may fluctuate, but it is difficult to reverse the oversupply pattern. The global sugar market is expected to have an oversupply in the 25/26 crushing season, and the main producing countries are expected to increase production. If the oil price continues to rise significantly, it may lead to a decrease in the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new crushing season, which will tighten the sugar supply and push up the sugar price. - Outlook: It is expected to be volatile. The price range of the domestic market can be moderately widened to 5100 - 5500 yuan/ton [13][14]. 3.1.9 Pulp - View: The futures continued to decline, and the relative weakness remained unchanged. - Logic: The pulp futures showed a trend of rising first and then falling, and the fluctuations were mainly affected by the transmission of crude oil fluctuations. From the perspective of fundamentals, the current situation is weak, but the seasonal expectation is getting stronger. The demand in the industrial chain is not strong, and the trading volume is average during the price increase. In the future, the demand is expected to improve seasonally. The supply of broad - leaf pulp has a positive impact on the overall pulp price, but the high overseas inventory of coniferous pulp and the flat import price have a negative impact on the pulp futures. Overall, the new changes in supply and demand tend to strengthen the positive impact of demand, but the long - term pressure is still large. - Outlook: It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. The expectation of marginal improvement in demand forms a positive factor, and the pulp market will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend within the range [15]. 3.1.10 Double - Gum Paper - View: As commodities corrected, double - gum paper fluctuated. - Logic: On March 10, 2026, the market price of double - gum paper in Shandong was stable. Yesterday, the commodity sentiment corrected, and the pulp and double - gum paper followed the weak trend, with no clear short - term driving force. The supply pressure of double - gum paper still exists, the downstream demand is weak, and the industry is waiting and seeing. The downstream paper enterprises have a strong intention to raise prices after the festival, and the spot price in Shandong has increased slightly. The paper enterprises' quotations at the beginning of the month have been partially raised, but the actual transactions are mostly stable. From March to April, the supply and demand of the double - gum paper market are expected to increase. In May, the price may decline due to the negotiation behavior of publishers and the lack of social orders. - Outlook: It is expected to be volatile. After the festival, the supply and demand are expected to increase. The paper mills' quotations have been raised at the beginning of the month, and the short - term market will fluctuate within the range [16][17]. 3.1.11 Logs - View: As the geopolitical situation cooled, the market was under pressure. - Logic: On March 10, 2026, the price of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu was stable. Recently, the log market was affected by geopolitics, and the cost increase drove the spot and market prices to rise. But the fundamentals changed little. After the geopolitical conflict eased, the market showed a correction trend. The overseas quotation is expected to remain strong. The key points are the pressure on the domestic spot price after a large number of radiata pine arrives in March and April, and the geopolitical risks such as freight and US dollar exchange rate changes. - Outlook: It is expected to be volatile. The increase in overseas quotations drives up the domestic spot price, and the support below is strong. But due to the repeated geopolitical disturbances, the log market will maintain a range - bound operation [19]. 3.2 Commodity Index - On March 10, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities was 2572.74, a decrease of 0.45%; the commodity 20 index was 2930.42, a decrease of 0.23%; the industrial products index was 2509.90, a decrease of 0.69%. The agricultural products index was 968.25, with a daily decline of 1.33%, a 5 - day increase of 2.03%, a 1 - month increase of 3.36%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.77% [182][184].