油价波动主导盘面，基本金属延续震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Oil price fluctuations dominate the market, and base metals continue to fluctuate. The Fed's rate - cut expectations are dimmed, and the mid - line driving force is challenged again in the short term. The raw material end remains tight, and the smelting end has disturbance expectations. The terminal is weak, but consumption is gradually shifting to the traditional peak season, and price drops may boost consumption. If oil prices continue to rise, base metals will be suppressed, but high - energy - consuming varieties such as aluminum will benefit. If oil prices fall, base metals may rebound. In the medium term, the duration of the US - Iran war and oil price trends need to be monitored [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Outlook Copper - View: The US dollar index rebounds, and copper prices continue to fluctuate. Macro factors such as rising energy prices and a stronger US dollar index put pressure on copper prices. The supply of copper ore is tight, and the supply of refined copper is expected to shrink. Terminal demand is weak, and high inventories suppress copper prices. It is expected to fluctuate before inventory reduction [6]. Alumina - View: The weakening demand expectation competes with cost support, and alumina prices fluctuate widely. Macro sentiment amplifies market fluctuations. The supply contraction expectation is intensifying, but the actual supply contraction is insufficient. The demand expectation weakens, but cost support exists, so it is expected to maintain wide - range fluctuations [6][7]. Aluminum - View: Geopolitical uncertainties are high, and aluminum prices decline slightly. The US economic data is structurally differentiated, and the Middle - East geopolitical conflict is uncertain. The domestic production capacity is stable, and overseas supply is disturbed. The demand starts to recover slightly, and inventories continue to accumulate. It is expected to maintain a slightly stronger fluctuating trend in the short term, and the price center may rise in the medium term [8][9]. Aluminum Alloy - View: Cost support continues, and prices fluctuate slightly stronger. The cost of scrap aluminum is high, and the supply is tight. The supply is restricted by policies, and demand is mainly for rigid - demand restocking. Inventories are decreasing. It is expected to maintain a slightly stronger fluctuating trend in the short and medium terms [10]. Zinc - View: TC is still at a low level, and zinc prices fluctuate at a high level. Macro concerns about economic slowdown increase, but the conflict shows signs of easing. The supply of zinc ingots is increasing, and the demand is in the peak season but the terminal orders are limited. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term and may decline in the long term [11]. Lead - View: Cost support is stable, and lead prices fluctuate. The production of lead ingots is high, the demand of lead - acid battery enterprises is expected to recover, but the terminal demand is weak, and inventories may accumulate. It is expected to fluctuate [13][15]. Nickel - View: Policy and high inventory compete, and nickel prices fluctuate. The supply pressure eases slightly, but the inventory is still high. The Indonesian policy adjustment affects the market's balance expectation. It is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger, and the Indonesian policy needs to be continuously monitored [15][16]. Stainless Steel - View: The price of nickel - iron rises, and the stainless - steel market fluctuates. The cost is supported, the production is expected to increase in March, the terminal demand is cautious, and the inventory accumulates. It is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger, and the Indonesian policy needs to be continuously monitored [17][18]. Tin - View: There is no obvious driving force, and tin prices fluctuate. The supply in Wabang is expected to increase, the Indonesian production target is raised, and the supply in Congo (Kinshasa) is at high risk. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the demand is growing. It is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the long - term [18][19]. 2. Market Monitoring - Commodity Index: On March 10, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2572.74, down 0.45%; the commodity 20 index was 2930.42, down 0.23%; the industrial products index was 2509.90, down 0.69% [145]. - Non - ferrous Metals Index: On March 10, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2708.06, with a daily increase of 0.25%, a 5 - day increase of 0.31%, a 1 - month decrease of 0.05%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.82% [147].