金信期货日刊-20260311

Group 1: Overall Report Information - Report Name: Jinxin Futures Daily [1] - Date: March 11, 2026 [1] Group 2: Crude Oil Futures Analysis - Short - term Situation: Crude oil futures will maintain a high - volatility and strongly differentiated pattern, mainly driven by geopolitical expectations and policy hedging. The current volatility results from the rapid switch between the escalation and mitigation signals of the Middle East conflict. As of March 10, the intraday amplitude of the SC crude oil main contract exceeded 10% [3]. - Medium - term Variables: Three variables need attention. First, the sustainability of the geopolitical risk premium. If the Strait passage resumes, the previous premium of $8 - 10 per barrel will quickly disappear. Second, the supply - demand fundamentals. OPEC+ production cuts and the slowdown in US shale oil production form a tight balance, but global demand recovery is weak. Third, the policy implementation rhythm. US measures to stabilize oil prices and OPEC+ production adjustments will determine the volatility center [3]. - Operation Suggestions: Avoid unilateral chasing up or selling down. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with Brent focusing on the $80 - 100 per barrel range and SC crude oil on the 600 - 800 yuan per barrel range. Also, set stop - losses and avoid holding overnight positions [3]. Group 3: Stock Index Futures Analysis - Market Performance: Today, the stock index basically opened high and went high, closing strongly under the influence of the sharp rise in international oil prices and US stocks. Technically, in the 5 - minute small - cycle, it is at a high level, and it is expected to have an adjustment requirement tomorrow morning. Tomorrow morning's adjustment is a good opportunity for low - buying [6][7]. Group 4: Gold Analysis - Market Performance: The red - green line of the gold daily - level chart turns bearish. After the morning opening, it fluctuated higher and showed an overall oscillating trend. It should be treated with a short - selling mindset [10]. Group 5: Iron Ore Analysis - Supply and Demand: Australia and Brazil's shipments maintain a normal rhythm. In the medium - to long - term, it is in the mine production capacity release cycle, and there is still an expectation of loose supply. On the demand side, steel mills are resuming production after the holiday, but the start of terminal demand still takes time [12][13]. - Technical View: Recently, the commodity sentiment is high, and iron ore is running strongly. It can continue to be viewed with a bullish mindset [12]. Group 6: Glass Analysis - Supply and Demand: The daily melting change is small. In the seasonal off - season, factory inventories continue to accumulate. It is necessary to pay attention to the resumption progress of deep - processing after the holiday. In the short term, it is more affected by the overall commodity sentiment [16][17]. - Technical View: Today, it closed with a large negative line. It can still be viewed with a wide - range oscillation mindset [16]. Group 7: Methanol Analysis - Market Impact: Iran is the world's second - largest methanol producer and a major methanol exporter, significantly affecting global methanol supply. Recently, driven by Middle East geopolitical emergencies, methanol has shown continuous large fluctuations, and the domestic market will also fluctuate significantly [19]. Group 8: Pulp Analysis - Supply and Demand: Most pulp and paper plants have resumed normal production, with individual plants under maintenance. Domestic port inventories continue to accumulate, and the downstream paper mills' operating load is expected to continue to increase. Paper companies' gross profits are continuously low, and there is an expectation of price increases for cultural paper and white cardboard, which may support pulp prices [22].