LLDPE：地缘不确定性较高，裂解供应收缩延续；PP：多种原料供应受限，上游开工收缩

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation has a high level of uncertainty. For LLDPE, the cracking supply contraction continues, and for PP, the supply of multiple raw materials is restricted, leading to a contraction in upstream operations. The supply - side contraction expectation of polyolefins continues, and the market sentiment is affected by the sharp decline in the market [1]. - The geopolitical issue remains unresolved. For PE, the cost is increasing due to the expected strong performance of naphtha, and there is an expected improvement in demand after the festival; for PP, the cost is strongly supported, the PDH maintenance rate is high, and the demand is expected to improve after the Lantern Festival [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: For L2605, the closing price was 7767 with a daily decline of 2.23%, trading volume of 1,646,638, and a decrease of 97,004 in positions; for PP2605, the closing price was 7820 with a daily decline of 2.66%, trading volume of 1,781,910, and a decrease of 116,215 in positions. The 05 - contract basis for L2605 was 33 (previous day: 1156), and for PP2605 was 80 (previous day: 1166). The 05 - 09 contract spread for L2605 was 323 (previous day: 188), and for PP2605 was 495 (previous day: 349) [1]. - Spot Prices: In North China, the LLDPE spot price was 7800 yuan/ton (previous day: 9100), and PP was 7900 yuan/ton (previous day: 9700); in East China, LLDPE was 7750 yuan/ton (previous day: 9500), and PP was 7900 yuan/ton (previous day: 9200); in South China, LLDPE was 8100 yuan/ton (previous day: 9500), and PP was 8150 yuan/ton (previous day: 9400) [1]. 3.2 Spot News - The geopolitical situation continues to affect raw material transportation. Plants such as LG Bohai, Formosa Plastics, and BASF have announced force - majeure production cuts, and the supply - side contraction expectation of polyolefins continues. The sharp decline in the market has dampened market sentiment, petrochemical manufacturers have lowered ex - factory prices, traders have significantly reduced quotes, and end - users are cautious with limited purchasing power [1]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - PE: The geopolitical issue has led to shipping stagnation in the Strait of Hormuz, affecting logistics. Naphtha is expected to be strong, increasing the PE cost. There is an expected improvement in the demand for mulch film after the festival, and the packaging film industry will gradually recover after the Lantern Festival. On the supply side, BASF's Zhanjiang plant has achieved mass production, the number of planned maintenance and production cuts is expected to increase in March, the standard product production schedule is stable, and the inventory accumulation during the festival is relatively large [2]. - PP: C3 is affected by supply disturbances from Saudi Arabia and Iran, with strong cost support, and the PDH maintenance rate remains high. There is no new production before the 2605 contract, intensifying the game between existing supply and demand. After the Lantern Festival, downstream industries are expected to resume work intensively, and the demand will improve month - on - month. The PDH profit remains at a low level, and multiple PDH plants in South China have not resumed operation after maintenance. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in cracking and PDH plants [2]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is 1, and the trend intensity of PP is 1 [4]