五矿期货早报|有色金属：有色金属日报-20260311

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: The short - term probability of continued escalation of the Middle East war has decreased, risk preference has improved, and key mineral resource attributes provide emotional support. The TC remains at a low level, the copper mine supply is in a tight pattern, the downstream start - up rate continues to rise, and the pressure of copper inventory accumulation is reduced. The copper price is expected to rise in a volatile manner [2][3]. - Aluminum: The supply risk in the Middle East has not been eliminated, and the supply is expected to remain tight. The domestic downstream has resumed work and production successively, and the increase in the domestic molten aluminum ratio is expected to reduce the pressure of aluminum ingot accumulation. The aluminum price is expected to remain strong [5][6]. - Lead: Although there has been a large accumulation of lead ingots at home and abroad, the current lead price is at the lower edge of the shock range, and the declining smelting profit of smelting enterprises may narrow the surplus of lead ingots. It is expected that the lead price will stop falling and stabilize in the short term and gradually recover as the supply of lead ingots narrows [8][9]. - Zinc: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate has increased slightly, and the smelting profit has improved slightly. The finished product inventory of smelting enterprises and the social inventory of zinc ingots have increased significantly, and the domestic zinc industry remains weak. The impact of the Iran conflict on zinc ore supply is relatively small. The oil price is still at a relatively high level, and there are inflation concerns in the market. After the interest - rate cut expectation is lowered, the non - ferrous metal trend is under pressure, and the zinc price has a risk of breaking downward. It is expected that the zinc price will show a wide - range shock following the sector sentiment during the conflict [10][11]. - Tin: Under the background of macro - easing and general price increases in the semiconductor industry, the market sentiment of going long on the tin price is strong. However, it should also be noted that the supply - demand of tin ingots is marginally loose and the inventory has been rising steadily recently. It is not advisable to blindly chase the high. The intensification of the US - Iran conflict may put pressure on risk assets, and the tin price is expected to operate in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see [12][13]. - Nickel: In the medium term, the implementation of the RKAB quota reduction policy in Indonesia and the steady rise of nickel ore prices support the upward shift of the nickel price center. In the short term, the contradiction between spot supply and demand is limited, and the Middle East geopolitical conflict leads to a decline in market risk preference. It is expected that the price will still operate in a shock. It is recommended to sell high and buy low [15][16]. - Lithium Carbonate: Trump released a signal of easing the Iran situation, and the sentiment in the equity market improved. The lithium carbonate spot has not shown obvious looseness, and the industry has the willingness to stock up at low prices when the lithium price回调. The industrial - side drive is limited recently, and the futures position is at a relatively low level. It is expected that the probability of range fluctuation is high. The potential green - power transformation expectation may be beneficial to the pricing of lithium carbonate. Future attention should be paid to the downstream stocking rhythm, the change of spot - market premium and discount, and the atmosphere of the commodity market [18][19]. - Alumina: The increase in maintenance and the delay of production start - up drive the contraction of the inventory accumulation amplitude. The oversupply of the ore end continues, the premium of the disk leads to a high volume of warehouse - receipt registration, and the delivery pressure suppresses the upward movement of the disk price. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and the futures price may maintain a wide - range shock. Attention should be paid to the potential drivers, such as the production - reduction action of Guinea mines or the price - support action of the Guinea government, and the implementation of the supply - contraction policy at the smelting end [21][22]. - Stainless Steel: The market procurement atmosphere has warmed up, and some traders and downstream customers have carried out concentrated inquiries and restocking operations, boosting the phased increase in transactions. However, the actual purchases of downstream users are still relatively small, and most are still in the stage of preparing for resuming work, and the procurement willingness has not been significantly released. The overall transaction is mainly the resource transfer between traders. It is expected that stainless steel will maintain a shock - upward pattern [24][26]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The cost - end price of cast aluminum alloy is relatively strong. After the festival, the resumption of work and production of downstream enterprises promotes the improvement of demand. Coupled with supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw - material supply, the short - term price is expected to remain strong [28][29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Market Information: Trump said that the war against Iran was basically over. The crude - oil price rose sharply and then fell back, and the copper price rebounded after reaching a low. The LME 3M copper contract rose 0.39% to $12,919/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 101,160 yuan/ton. The LME inventory increased by 9,925 to 294,250 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants increased. The domestic electrolytic - copper social inventory increased slightly compared with last Thursday, and the bonded - area inventory increased slightly month - on - month. The spot discount of copper in the East China region narrowed to 45 yuan/ton, and the spot discount of copper in the Guangdong region narrowed to 10 yuan/ton. The domestic copper spot import loss narrowed to about 300 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed to 1,100 yuan/ton [2]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The short - term copper price is expected to rise in a volatile manner. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract today is 100,000 - 102,500 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME 3M copper is $12,800 - 13,100/ton [3]. Aluminum - Market Information: The crude - oil price fluctuated widely, the cancelled warrants of LME aluminum increased significantly, and the aluminum price rose after opening low. The LME 3M aluminum contract rose 0.35% to $3,400/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 25,060 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract decreased by 1.6 to 662,000 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.5 to 341,000 tons. The inventory of aluminum ingots in three places increased month - on - month, and the inventory of aluminum rods decreased slightly. The processing fee of aluminum rods increased, and the trading was average. The spot discount of aluminum ingots in the East China region narrowed to 120 yuan/ton, and downstream users mainly made rigid - demand purchases. The LME inventory decreased by 0.2 to 452,000 tons, the proportion of cancelled warrants increased significantly, and the Cash/3M maintained a premium [5]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The aluminum price is expected to remain strong. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract today is 24,600 - 25,800 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME 3M aluminum is $3,350 - 3,500/ton [6]. Lead - Market Information: On Tuesday, the Shanghai lead index fell 0.48% to 16,665 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading position was 120,800 lots. As of 15:00 on Tuesday, the LME 3S lead rose 5 to $1,937/ton compared with the same period of the previous day, and the total position was 171,900 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,525 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,500 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap price difference was 25 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric - vehicle batteries was 9,950 yuan/ton. The lead - ingot futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 56,600 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 140 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continuous contract was - 70 yuan/ton. The LME lead - ingot inventory was 284,900 tons, and the LME lead - ingot cancelled warrants were 4,600 tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was - 47.74 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 136.6 dollars/ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the Shanghai - London price ratio of the disk was 1.252, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 530.12 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on March 9 was 73,700 tons, an increase of 4,900 tons compared with March 5 [8]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is expected that the lead price will stop falling and stabilize in the short term and gradually recover as the supply of lead ingots narrows [9]. Zinc - Market Information: On Tuesday, the Shanghai zinc index rose 0.05% to 24,440 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading position was 174,700 lots. As of 15:00 on Tuesday, the LME 3S zinc rose 25 to $3,343/ton compared with the same period of the previous day, and the total position was 216,300 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 24,210 yuan/ton, the Shanghai basis was - 105 yuan/ton, the Tianjin basis was - 95 yuan/ton, the Guangdong basis was - 95 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong spread was - 10 yuan/ton. The zinc - ingot futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 78,400 tons, the domestic Shanghai - area basis was - 105 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continuous contract was - 85 yuan/ton. The LME zinc - ingot inventory was 94,800 tons, and the LME zinc - ingot cancelled warrants were 7,700 tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was - 28.21 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 59.61 dollars/ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the Shanghai - London price ratio of the disk was 1.065, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 2,889.63 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets on March 9 was 218,300 tons, an increase of 4,700 tons compared with March 5 [10]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is expected that the zinc price will show a wide - range shock following the sector sentiment during the conflict [11]. Tin - Market Information: On March 10, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 392,770 yuan/ton, a 2.36% increase from the previous day. On the supply side, the start - up rate of smelters in Yunnan decreased during the Spring Festival and recovered slowly after the festival. In Jiangxi, the supply of crude tin was tight due to the shortage of scrap supply, and the refined - tin output continued to be at a low level. On the demand side, although the emerging fields such as AI servers have an optimistic demand for tin, the industry as a whole is still in the transition period of resuming work after the festival, the start - up rate of most downstream factories is low, and the substantial demand has not been effectively reflected. The downstream willingness to receive goods is weak, and enterprises generally maintain the strategy of consuming their own inventory, with few new purchases [12]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 370,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the overseas LME tin is $47,000 - 54,000/ton [13]. Nickel - Market Information: On March 10, the Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 137,050 yuan/ton, a 0.39% increase from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium and discount of each brand remained stable. The average premium and discount of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was - 150 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase from the previous day; the average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was 6,650 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day. On the cost side, the ex - factory price of 1.6% grade Indonesian domestic - trade laterite nickel ore was reported at $68.74/wet ton, the same as the previous day, and the ex - factory price of 1.2% grade Indonesian domestic - trade laterite nickel ore was reported at $27.5/wet ton, the same as the previous day. In terms of nickel iron, the price continued to rise, and the average price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was reported at 1,086 yuan/nickel point, a 2 - yuan decrease from the previous day [15]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to sell high and buy low. The short - term reference range for the Shanghai nickel price is 120,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME 3M nickel contract is $16,000 - 20,000/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: The evening quotation of the Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) was 158,994 yuan, a 3.33% increase from the previous working day. Among them, the quotation of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 153,800 - 165,000 yuan, and the average price increased by 5,150 yuan (+3.34%) from the previous working day; the quotation of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 151,000 - 162,000 yuan, and the average price increased by 3.30% from the previous day. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 163,000 yuan, a 1.20% increase from the previous closing price, and the average premium and discount of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 850 yuan [18]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is expected that the probability of range fluctuation is high. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract today is 150,000 - 175,000 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - Market Information: On March 10, 2026, as of 15:00, the alumina index fell 2.04% to 2,852 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading position was 452,200 lots, a decrease of 71,000 lots from the previous trading day. In terms of the basis, the spot price in Shandong increased by 5 yuan/ton to 2,625 yuan/ton, with a discount of 214 yuan/ton to the main contract. Overseas, the MYSTEEL Australian FOB price remained at $304/ton, and the import profit and loss was reported at 6 yuan/ton. In terms of futures inventory, the futures warehouse receipts on Tuesday were reported at 337,200 tons, the same as the previous trading day. At the ore end, the Guinea CIF price remained at $62/ton, and the Australian CIF price increased by 2 dollars/ton to $57/ton [21]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and the futures price may maintain a wide - range shock. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,700 - 3,000 yuan/ton [22]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: At 15:00 on Tuesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,225 yuan/ton, a 0.85% increase (+120) on the day, and the unilateral position was 160,500 lots, a decrease of 13,647 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the Delong 304 cold - rolled coil price in the Foshan market was reported at 14,250 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase from the previous day; the Hongwang 304 cold - rolled coil price in the Wuxi market was reported at 14,450 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase from the previous day; the Foshan basis was - 175 (- 70), and the Wuxi basis