期货市场交易指引-20260311

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to trade in a range [1][5][6] - Black Building Materials: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; shorting on rallies for glass [1][8][10][11] - Non - ferrous Metals: Short - term range trading for copper, with a focus on the 98000 - 106000 range; strengthening observation for aluminum; moderately holding long positions on dips for nickel; range trading for tin; trading in a range for gold, silver, and lithium carbonate [1][14][16][18][20][21][23][24] - Energy and Chemicals: Trading in a range for PVC and caustic soda; shorting on rallies for soda ash; bullish and volatile for styrene, polyolefins, rubber, and urea; bullish and volatile for methanol; range trading for methanol and urea [1][26][28][29][30][32][33][35] - Cotton - spinning Industry Chain: Bullish and volatile for cotton and cotton yarn, apples; trading in a range for red dates [1][37][38][41] - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: A bearish rolling strategy for the May contract of live pigs, cautious bullish for the July and September contracts; waiting for rallies to short near - month egg contracts; being cautious about chasing highs for corn at high levels; shorting on rallies for soybean meal; bullish and volatile for oils and fats, suggesting a rolling long strategy for soybean and palm oils [1][42][45][46][48][49] Core Views - The market risk appetite has recovered, and the volatility of the impact of the US - Iran conflict on the market may decline. Stock indices may rebound, while government bonds may trade in a range [5][6] - The fundamentals of various commodities are affected by factors such as supply, demand, cost, and geopolitical situations. Different trading strategies are recommended for different commodities according to their specific situations [1] Summary by Categories Macro Finance - Stock Indices: Bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips. The market risk appetite has recovered, and the impact of the US - Iran conflict on the market may decline [5] - Government Bonds: Expected to trade in a range. The trading around the Two Sessions and short - term RRR cuts and interest rate cuts has ended. The market will focus on institutional behavior at the end of the quarter and overseas situations [6] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: Short - term trading. The coking coal market is weak and stable after the Spring Festival, with slow demand recovery [8][9] - Rebar: Range trading. The futures price of rebar is currently below the electric furnace valley - electricity cost, with a low static valuation. The short - term price is expected to be bullish and volatile [10] - Glass: Shorting on rallies. The supply has increased, the inventory has risen, the demand is weak, and the cost has increased. The upside space is limited [11][12] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Short - term range trading or observation, with a focus on the 98000 - 106000 range. The macro factors have a negative impact on copper prices, but the supply and consumption expectations support the prices [14][15] - Aluminum: Strengthening observation. The price is affected by the Middle East situation, and the downstream demand is gradually picking up. It is recommended to be long with position control [16][17] - Nickel: Moderately holding long positions on dips. The reduction of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia supports the price, but the demand is weak in the short term [18][19] - Tin: Range trading. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is in rigid need. The price is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations [20] - Silver and Gold: Trading in a range. The prices are affected by the US - Iran war, inflation expectations, and interest rate cut expectations. It is recommended to observe and trade cautiously [21][22][23] - Lithium Carbonate: Trading in a range. The supply and demand are both increasing, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate [24][25] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Trading in a range. The supply is high, the demand is weak, but the valuation is low. There is short - term support from export tax rebates [26] - Caustic Soda: Trading in a range. The demand has marginal support, and there are expectations of exports and spring maintenance. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs [28] - Soda Ash: Shorting on rallies. The supply is expected to remain high, and the inventory pressure is increasing. The price is expected to be under pressure [36] - Styrene: Bullish and volatile. The cost is supported by rising oil prices, and the inventory pressure is light. It is recommended to buy on dips without chasing highs [29] - Polyolefins: Bullish and volatile. The cost is supported by geopolitical conflicts, and the supply and demand are marginally improving [31] - Rubber: Bullish and volatile. It is recommended to buy on dips without chasing highs. The cost is supported, but the inventory pressure is large [32] - Urea: Bullish and volatile, range trading. The supply is increasing, the demand is picking up, and the inventory is decreasing [33][34] - Methanol: Bullish and volatile, range trading. The supply may be affected by the war in Iran, and the demand is mixed [35] Cotton - spinning Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Bullish and volatile. The global cotton supply and demand situation is changing, and the price is expected to be bullish and volatile after the festival [37] - Apples: Bullish and volatile. The trading is stable, and the price is relatively stable [38][40] - Red Dates: Trading in a range. The acquisition price in the Xinjiang region is based on quality [41] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Live Pigs: A bearish rolling strategy for the May contract, cautious bullish for the July and September contracts. The short - term price is under pressure, and the medium - to long - term price may rebound [42][44] - Eggs: Waiting for rallies to short near - month contracts. The price has rebounded, but the supply is still sufficient [45] - Corn: Bullish and volatile, being cautious about chasing highs at high levels. The short - term price is supported, but the medium - to long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [46][47] - Soybean Meal: Shorting on rallies. The price is affected by the US - China talks, South American production, and soybean arrivals [48] - Oils and Fats: Bullish and volatile, suggesting a rolling long strategy for soybean and palm oils. The prices are affected by international oil prices and supply - demand situations [49][50][51][52][53][54]