宁证期货今日早评-20260311

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The war between the US and Iran is still stalemated, and the probability of the war ending within this week is low. The international oil price fluctuates greatly, and the direction of the war remains highly uncertain. This situation affects various industries such as PTA, gold, and crude oil [1][9]. - The international situation is complex and changeable, which has an impact on the prices of various commodities. Some commodities are expected to show high - level oscillations, while others may have different trends depending on supply - demand relationships and cost factors [1][3] Summary by Commodity PTA - PTA social inventory is 374.57 million tons, up 13.48 million tons from the previous statistical period. The PTA capacity utilization rate is adjusted to 80.33%, and the polyester comprehensive capacity utilization rate is around 83.83%. As polyester load seasonally recovers, PTA will gradually destock. The tight supply of PX due to the situation in the Middle East is the main factor for the polyester market [1]. Gold - The war situation is still unclear. High oil prices boost inflation expectations and weaken the prospect of interest rate cuts, which puts pressure on gold prices. However, due to the existence of risk - aversion sentiment, the short - term downside space for gold is limited, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1]. Steel Products - 螺纹钢: On March 10, domestic steel market prices showed mixed trends. Affected by the sharp fluctuations in international energy prices, black futures have fallen from high levels. Short - term steel prices may oscillate [3]. - 铁矿石: The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in China is 171.1786 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 25.90 million tons. The supply - demand contradiction of steel is not obvious in the short term, and the supply - demand of iron ore is relatively loose. The market is greatly affected by macro - sentiment, and the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly [3]. Coal and Coking Products - 焦煤: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants in China is 17 yuan/ton. The supply is gradually recovering, and the demand is weak. The short - term futures price will be mainly oscillating [4]. Livestock Products - 生猪: The national pig price is mainly declining. The short - term price will continue to oscillate at the bottom, and the long - term downward space for futures prices is limited. Focus on the slaughter volume of the breeding end and the reduction of fertile sows [4]. Agricultural Products - 豆粕: The domestic spot price of soybean meal has been adjusted. The lower support of the futures contract is strong, but the short - term upward space is suppressed. The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level [5]. - 棕榈油: Malaysia's palm oil inventory in February decreased by 3.95% month - on - month. The report is neutral to bearish, but the decline is limited. The domestic spot inventory pressure is large, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate at a high level [5][6]. Non - ferrous Metals - 铝: The aluminum price once soared to a nearly four - year high but then fell back. The Middle East situation is still uncertain, and the aluminum price is expected to oscillate at a high level with increased volatility [6]. - 镍: Four HPAL plants in Indonesia have suspended production, which will affect the short - term supply of battery - grade nickel. The supply tightening expectation supports the nickel price, but the upward space is limited by demand [7]. - 锌: The import benchmark processing fee for zinc concentrate in 2026 has slightly rebounded, but the supply of zinc concentrate is still tight. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate [8]. Energy Products - 原油: The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 1.7 million barrels in the week ending March 6, 2026. The oil transportation in the Strait of Hormuz is interrupted, and the market fluctuates violently. Attention should be paid to risk prevention [9][10]. Other Products - 天然橡胶: Overseas rubber - producing areas are in the production - reduction period. China's rubber inventory is still accumulating. The demand for downstream tire products has recovered, and the 05 contract is expected to oscillate more with 16,500 as the support [10]. - 甲醇: The domestic methanol production is at a high level, the port inventory is basically stable, and the spot market is weak. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly [11]. - 二年期国债: The short - term capital is marginally tightened, and the long - term capital is still loose. During the Two Sessions, there may be fewer incremental policies, and the two - year treasury bond will mainly oscillate [11]. - 玻璃: The start - up rate of the float glass industry is relatively stable, the profit is poor, the enterprise inventory is at a high level in the past three years, and the supply is stable while the demand is weak. The short - term price is expected to run weakly [12]. - 塑料: The supply pressure has been alleviated, the production enterprise inventory has decreased, the demand is weak, and the cost - side support has weakened. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly [13]. - 铂金: The conflict in the Middle East affects inflation expectations and economic prospects, which has a negative impact on the demand for platinum. However, due to the high - level oscillation of gold, the downward space for platinum is limited, and it may follow the fluctuation rhythm of silver in the medium term [14].