棉花：等待新的驱动20260311

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is waiting for new drivers. The ICE cotton futures rebounded slightly due to the decline in crude oil prices and the alleviation of market concerns. The domestic cotton spot trading was relatively light, and the mainstream basis was generally stable. The price of pure - cotton yarn remained stable, and the trading performance was average. There was a differentiation in the variety performance, and imported yarn had a certain substitution pressure on the domestic low - count yarn market [1][2][3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: CF2605 closed at 15,320 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.23%, and its night - session closing price was 15,510 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 1.24%. CY2605 closed at 21,280 yuan/ton yesterday with no daily increase, and its night - session closing price was 21,445 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.78%. ICE cotton 5 was at 65.26 cents/pound with a 0.90% increase. The trading volume of CF2605 was 606,268 lots, a decrease of 618,452 lots from the previous day, and the position was 1,130,526 lots, a decrease of 30,497 lots. The trading volume of CY2605 was 13,404 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the position was 14,083 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - Warehouse Receipt Data: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 11,950, an increase of 303, and the valid forecast was 790, a decrease of 309. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 43, with no change, and the valid forecast was 348, a decrease of 305 [1] - Spot Price Data: The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,534 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan or 0.24%. The price of South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,483 yuan/ton, an increase of 57 yuan or 0.34%. The price in Shandong was 16,767 yuan/ton, an increase of 111 yuan or 0.67%. The price in Hebei was 16,775 yuan/ton, an increase of 111 yuan or 0.67%. The 3128B index was 16,733 yuan/ton, an increase of 101 yuan or 0.61%. The Cotlook:A index was 74.75 cents/pound, an increase of 0.10 or 0.13%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 22,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan or 0.18%. The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 22,033 yuan/ton, an increase of 158 yuan or 0.72% [1] - Spread Data: The CF5 - 9 spread was - 60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan. The spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 1,210 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: According to TTEB information, the overall trading of cotton spot was light, and textile enterprises had weak purchasing willingness. The mainstream basis was generally stable. The mainstream negotiable basis for 2025/26 North Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29B with impurity within 3 and micronaire value above 4 was in the range of CF05 + 1350 - 1450 for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. For 2025/26 South Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29B with impurity within 3.5 and micronaire value above 4, the lower offer was in the range of CF05 + 1100 - 1250, and the higher offer was mostly above CF05 + 1250 for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. The partial transaction basis for 2025/26 South Xinjiang Kashgar machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 was around CF05 + 1200 for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2] - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises: According to TTEB information, the price of pure - cotton yarn remained stable, and the trading performance was average. Recently, new orders for inland textile enterprises have been gradually issued, and the operation rate of some textile enterprises has increased significantly. The overall low - price goods in the pure - cotton yarn market have decreased. There was an obvious differentiation in variety performance. Except for low - count yarn and rotor - spun yarn, other varieties generally had good transactions. Currently, imported yarn had a prominent cost - performance advantage, which exerted a certain substitution pressure on the domestic low - count yarn market [2] - US Cotton: Yesterday, ICE cotton futures continued to rebound slightly due to the decline in crude oil prices and the alleviation of market concerns [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 1, indicating a neutral trend. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the interval [-2, 2], with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5]