五矿期货农产品早报-20260311

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For sugar, short - term Zheng sugar prices fluctuated due to crude oil, but with low raw sugar prices and potential for reduced sugar - making ratio in Brazil after April, it's not advisable to be overly bearish. Domestically, with reduced production pressure and potential raw sugar benefits, there may be a rebound, so consider buying on dips [5]. - For cotton, short - term Zheng cotton prices fluctuated due to crude oil. Focus on March downstream operation. If favorable, there is room for price increase, so maintain the strategy of buying on dips [9]. - For protein meal, affected by geopolitical crisis and crude oil price fluctuations, it's recommended to wait and see in the short term [12]. - For oils and fats, short - term prices rose due to geopolitical crisis. With low inventory in major consumer countries, maintain a bullish view in the medium term [15]. - For eggs, production capacity is decreasing but slowly. Short - term supply is high, and spot prices lack continuous upward momentum. For the near - term, consider shorting on rebounds; for the far - term, watch for cost - side support [18]. - For pigs, considering high weight and theoretical output, short - term spot prices may remain weak and stable. For the near - term, short on rebounds; for the far - term, wait and see due to high premium [21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar Market Information - As of February 28, 2026, India's cumulative sugar production in the 2025/26 season was 24.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.62 million tons [4]. - The delivery volume of the March raw sugar contract was 808,000 tons. Louis Dreyfus was the largest seller, and Suke敦 was the only buyer [4]. - ISMA predicted India's net sugar production (excluding ethanol) in the 2025/26 season to be 29.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.65 million tons from the second prediction and a year - on - year increase of 3.17 million tons [4]. - Hedgepoint Global Markets estimated Brazil's sugar production in the 2026/27 season to be 40.5 million tons, the same as the previous year. Sugar - making ratio was 48.6%, a decrease of 2 percentage points year - on - year [4]. - As of March 4, 2026, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports was 44, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 1.4939 million tons [4]. - As of February 28, 2026, Thailand's sugar production in the 2025/26 season was 8.49 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 130,000 tons [4]. - In the second half of January 2025, Brazil's central - southern region crushed 609,000 tons of sugarcane, producing 5,000 tons of sugar, with a sugar - making ratio of 6.63% [4]. - ISO predicted the global sugar production in the 2025/26 season to be 181.29 million tons, a decrease of 480,000 tons from the previous prediction [4]. Strategy - Short - term, due to crude oil price fluctuations, Zheng sugar prices rose and then fell. With low raw sugar prices and potential for reduced sugar - making ratio in Brazil, don't be overly bearish. Domestically, with reduced production pressure and potential raw sugar benefits, there may be a rebound. Consider buying on dips [5]. Cotton Market Information - ICAC predicted a 4% decline in global cotton production in the 2026/27 season to 24.8 million tons, while consumption was expected to remain stable at 25 million tons [6]. - From February 26 to March 5, 2026, the US current - year cotton export sales were 35,800 tons, with cumulative sales of 2.0865 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 163,900 tons. Exports to China were 1,800 tons, with cumulative exports of 100,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90,200 tons [6]. - As of March 6, 2026, the spinning mill operation rate was 73.2%, an 8.6 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 330,000 tons [6]. - In January 2026, the predicted global cotton production in the 2025/26 season was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the December prediction and an increase of 200,000 tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a 1.42 - percentage - point decrease from the December prediction and a 0.62 - percentage - point increase from the previous year [8]. - In January 2026, the predicted US cotton production was 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons from the December prediction. The export estimate remained unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, a 2.17 - percentage - point decrease from the December prediction [8]. - Brazil's production estimate remained at 4.08 million tons, India's production was reduced by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons, and China's production was increased by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons [8]. - In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.56 million tons [8]. Strategy - Short - term, due to crude oil price fluctuations, Zheng cotton prices rose and then fell. Focus on March downstream operation. If favorable, there is room for price increase. Maintain the strategy of buying on dips [9]. Protein Meal Market Information - In February 2026, China's soybean imports were 5.976 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to February were 12.547 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8% [11]. - AgRural estimated Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season to be 178 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons from the previous prediction [11]. - StoneX estimated Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season to be 177.8 million tons, a decrease of 3.8 million tons from the previous prediction [11]. - From February 19 to February 26, 2026, the US exported 380,000 tons of soybeans, with current - year cumulative exports of 36.03 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.86 million tons. Exports to China were 150,000 tons, with current - year cumulative exports to China of 10.82 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.13 million tons [11]. - As of March 6, 2026, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 13.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.54 million tons. The sample soybean port inventory was 5.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.79 million tons [11]. - In January 2026, the predicted global soybean production in the 2025/26 season was 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons from the December prediction and a decrease of 1.48 million tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.4%, a 0.39 - percentage - point increase from the December prediction and a 0.44 - percentage - point decrease from the previous year [11]. - In January 2026, the predicted US soybean production was 115.99 million tons, an increase of 238,000 tons from the December prediction and a decrease of 3.05 million tons from the previous year. The predicted Brazilian production was 178 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons from the December prediction and an increase of 6.5 million tons from the previous year. The predicted Argentine production was 48.5 million tons, the same as the December prediction and a decrease of 2.6 million tons from the previous year. The US export volume was slightly reduced by 1.63 million tons to 42.86 million tons from the December prediction [11]. Strategy - Affected by geopolitical crisis and crude oil price fluctuations, it's recommended to wait and see in the short term [12]. Oils and Fats Market Information - Indonesia's Energy Ministry is considering restarting the B50 mandatory blending policy in mid - 2026 [14]. - In January 2026, Indonesia's palm oil exports were 2.3 million tons, a decrease of 490,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 860,000 tons [14]. - In February 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.28 million tons, a decrease of 300,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 90,000 tons. Exports were 1.13 million tons, a decrease of 330,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 130,000 tons. Inventory was 2.7 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 1.19 million tons [14]. - From March 1 - 10, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil product exports were 581,000 tons (AmSpec data) and 622,000 tons (ITS data), an increase of 182,000 tons and 171,000 tons respectively from the previous month [14]. - As of the end of January 2026, India's vegetable oil inventory was 1.75 million tons, the same as the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 430,000 tons [14]. - As of March 6, 2026, the domestic sample data of the three major oils and fats inventory was 1.98 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 77,000 tons [14]. Strategy - Affected by geopolitical crisis, short - term oil prices rose. With low inventory in major consumer countries, maintain a bullish view in the medium term [15]. Eggs Market Information - Yesterday, the national egg price was stable or rising. The average price in the main production areas rose by 0.03 yuan to 3.06 yuan per catty. Supply was okay, downstream digestion was average, and some had a rational wait - and - see attitude. It's expected that today's egg price may be mostly stable with some narrow adjustments [17]. Strategy - Production capacity is decreasing but slowly. Short - term supply is high, and spot prices lack continuous upward momentum. For the near - term, consider shorting on rebounds; for the far - term, watch for cost - side support [18]. Pigs Market Information - Yesterday, domestic pig prices were up, down, or stable. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.06 yuan to 10.31 yuan per kilogram, in Sichuan increased by 0.04 yuan to 10.11 yuan per kilogram, and in Guangxi remained at 10.02 yuan per kilogram. Farmers' enthusiasm for selling was okay, there was still pressure to digest large pigs, and the demand for standard pigs was slightly supported by secondary fattening and frozen product storage. It's expected that today's national pig price may be stable in some areas and continue to decline slightly in others [20]. Strategy - Considering high weight and theoretical output, short - term spot prices may remain weak and stable. For the near - term, short on rebounds; for the far - term, wait and see due to high premium [21].