20260311申万期货品种策略日报-聚烯烃（LL&PP）-20260311

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, polyolefins opened high and closed low, with prices falling at night. PE and PP spot prices mostly dropped significantly compared to Monday. From a fundamental perspective, the situation in the Middle East is volatile, especially with Trump's changing stance on the US - Israel - Iran conflict, which has a significant cooling effect on crude oil. The overnight decline in international crude oil prices has a notable negative impact on chemicals, causing polyolefins to cool down. Currently, the macro - environment has a large impact on the chemical industry, with sentiment fluctuating. The polyolefin market should be treated rationally [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - LL Futures: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7374, 7767, and 7444 respectively, down 331, 177, and 312 from two days ago, with percentage drops of 4.30%, 2.23%, and 4.02%. The trading volumes were 2520, 1362346, and 269232, and the open interests were 1872, 313387, and 111147, with changes of 80, - 97004, and 6324 respectively. The spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 393, 323, and 70, compared to - 239, 188, and 51 previously [2] - PP Futures: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7131, 7820, and 7325 respectively, down 391, 214, and 360 from two days ago, with percentage drops of 5.20%, 2.66%, and 4.68%. The trading volumes were 8809, 1454118, and 276758, and the open interests were 9719, 363820, and 130725, with changes of - 585, - 116215, and - 8474 respectively. The spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 689, 495, and 194, compared to - 512, 349, and 163 previously [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - Raw Materials: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and plastic film are 2252 yuan/ton, 8800 yuan/ton, 875 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 8550 yuan/ton, and 8100 yuan/ton respectively, compared to 2831 yuan/ton, 9750 yuan/ton, 980 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 9700 yuan/ton, and 8100 yuan/ton previously [2] - Spot Market: The current price ranges of LL in East China, North China, and South China markets are 7700 - 8250 yuan/ton, 7600 - 8250 yuan/ton, and 8200 - 8900 yuan/ton respectively, compared to 9500 - 10000 yuan/ton, 9200 - 10000 yuan/ton, and 9700 - 10200 yuan/ton previously. The current price ranges of PP in East China, North China, and South China markets are 7750 - 8000 yuan/ton, 7600 - 7900 yuan/ton, and 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton respectively, compared to 9000 - 9600 yuan/ton, 9050 - 9600 yuan/ton, and 9300 - 10050 yuan/ton previously [2] News - On Tuesday (March 10), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for April 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $83.45 per barrel, down $11.32 or 11.94% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $76.73 - $91.48. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for May 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $87.8 per barrel, down $11.16 or 11.28% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $81.16 - $95.04 [2]