20260311申万期货品种策略日报-软商品-20260311

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For sugar, the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to fluctuate within a range overnight. The Iran situation may drive up the ethanol - to - sugar price, and sugar mills may adjust the sugar - making ratio. It is expected that the sugar - making ratio in the 26/27 crushing season may decline, and the raw sugar will maintain a volatile operation in the short term. In the medium term, the expected reduction in Brazil's output may offset part of the oversupply. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou sugar is boosted by the external market, and attention should be paid to the impact of the macro - environment on the market [3]. - For cotton, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated upwards overnight. The escalation of the Middle East situation has brought some adjustment and risk - aversion pressure to the market after digesting the previous bullish factors, but the callback range is expected to be relatively limited. In the long - term, cotton prices may still have room to rise under the expectation of tight supply and demand. In the domestic market, consumption has increased, and the carry - over inventory from last year is at a low level, so the supply this year is expected to be tight. Policy - regulated planting area may support cotton prices in the long - term [3]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - Sugar Futures: For domestic sugar futures contracts (SR2609, SR2605, SR2603), the prices decreased compared with the previous two days, with the decline rates of - 0.33%, - 0.50%, and - 0.09% respectively. The 11 - number sugar futures contracts (11 - number sugar 2610, 2607, 2605) also declined, with the decline rates of - 1.46%, - 1.70%, and - 1.46% respectively. The trading volume and open interest of each contract changed to varying degrees [2]. - Cotton Futures: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated upwards overnight [3]. Spot Market - Sugar Spot: The spot prices of white sugar in Liuzhou and Kunming decreased compared with the previous day. The basis of Liuzhou and Kunming relative to SR2509 also changed [2]. - Sugar Import Price: The import prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar, both within and outside the quota, decreased compared with the previous day. The differences between the futures price and the Thai sugar price also changed [2]. Inventory and Position - Sugar Inventory and Position: The number of sugar warehouse receipts and effective forecasts changed. The non - commercial long and short positions of ICE 11 - number sugar increased, and the long - to - short ratio rose from 0.43 to 0.44 [2]. Industry Information - Sugar Industry: Brazil's sugar exports in the first week of March decreased by 8% compared with the average daily export volume in March last year. As of March 10, in the 2025/26 crushing season in Guangxi, the number of sugar mills that had completed crushing decreased by 51 year - on - year, and the concentrated crushing is expected to be postponed to late March to early April. The ongoing Middle East conflict may lead Brazilian sugar mills to shift more production to ethanol in the next crushing season, reducing sugar production [3]. - Cotton Industry: The escalation of the Middle East situation has affected the cotton market, but in the long - term, the cotton market is expected to be supported by tight supply and demand and policy - regulated planting area [3].