2026年3月11日申万期货品种策略日报-黄金白银-20260311

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Precious metals have slightly rebounded. The statement from US President Trump that the war between the US and Iran may end soon led to a significant drop in oil prices, a cooling of inflation expectations, and a recovery in risk appetite, alleviating short - term suppression factors for precious metals. In the long - term, the price center of precious metals will continue to rise. Concerns about the US fiscal sustainability are intensifying, and with the reconstruction of the global political and economic order, the diversification of central bank reserve assets, and the continuous progress of de - dollarization, the long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged. Silver, platinum, and palladium, with their industrial and financial attributes in resonance, follow the overall sector trend but have relatively larger fluctuations [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Prices and Changes: For Shanghai Gold 2606, the previous day's closing price was 1143.54, yesterday's closing price was 1153.16, with a rise of 9.62 and a rise rate of 0.84%. For Shanghai Gold 2604, the previous day's closing price was 1140.00, yesterday's closing price was 1150.00, with a rise of 10.00 and a rise rate of 0.88%. For Shanghai Silver 2606, the previous day's closing price was 21547, yesterday's closing price was 22758, with a rise of 1211 and a rise rate of 5.62%. For Shanghai Silver 2604, the previous day's closing price was 21745, yesterday's closing price was 22912, with a rise of 1167 and a rise rate of 5.37% [2] - Positions and Volumes: The position volume of Shanghai Gold 2606 was 123330, and the trading volume was 89822. The position volume of Shanghai Gold 2604 was 111758, and the trading volume was 203619. The position volume of Shanghai Silver 2606 was 200036, and the trading volume was 471040. The position volume of Shanghai Silver 2604 was 104781, and the trading volume was 154464 [2] - Spot Premium and Discount: The spot premium and discount of Shanghai Gold 2606 was - 8.14, and that of Shanghai Gold 2604 was - 4.98. The spot premium and discount of Shanghai Silver 2606 was - 468, and that of Shanghai Silver 2604 was - 622 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing price of Shanghai Gold T + D was 1139.96, yesterday's closing price was 1145.02, with a rise of 5.06 and a rise rate of 0.44%. The previous day's closing price of London Gold was 5139.57, yesterday's closing price was 5190.10, with a rise of 50.53 and a rise rate of 0.98%. The previous day's closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D was 21290, yesterday's closing price was 22290, with a rise of 1000 and a rise rate of 4.70%. The previous day's closing price of London Silver was 86.98, yesterday's closing price was 88.34, with a rise of 1.36 and a rise rate of 1.57% [2] - Price Differences: The difference between Shanghai Gold 2606 and Shanghai Gold 2604 was 3.16 (previous value: 3.54). The difference between Shanghai Silver 2606 and Shanghai Silver 2604 was - 154.00 (previous value: - 198.00). The gold - to - silver ratio (spot) was 51.37 (previous value: 53.54). The ratio of Shanghai Gold to London Gold was 1.00 (previous value: 0.99). The ratio of Shanghai Silver to London Silver was 1.14 (previous value: 1.13) [2] 3.3 Inventory - Changes: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold remained unchanged at 104,934 kg. The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver increased by 5808 kg to 259,178 kg. The COMEX gold inventory decreased by 192906 ounces to 32,720,709 ounces. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 977529 ounces to 345,310,443 ounces [2] 3.4 Related Derivatives - Positions and Changes: The position of SPDR Gold ETF increased by 3 tons to 1,074 tons. The position of SLV Silver ETF decreased by 56 tons to 15,655 tons. The net position of CFTC speculators in gold increased by 968 to 160,145. The net position of CFTC speculators in silver increased by 1078 to 23,338 [2] 3.5 Macroeconomic News - IEA Proposal: The International Energy Agency (IEA) proposed to release its largest - ever oil reserve to lower the soaring oil prices due to the war between the US, Israel, and Iran. The proposed release amount would exceed the 182 million barrels of oil released by IEA member countries in two installments during the Russia - Ukraine conflict in 2022. The proposal was discussed at an emergency meeting of energy officials from 32 IEA member countries on Tuesday, and a decision is expected on Wednesday [3] - ECB Statement: European Central Bank President Lagarde said that due to high uncertainty, she could not state how interest rates would be adjusted [3] - Trump's Statements: US President Trump demanded that Iran immediately remove any mines in the Strait of Hormuz and warned of military consequences if not. He also said that the war with Iran might end soon. The Trump administration asked Israel to stop further airstrikes on Iranian energy facilities, especially oil infrastructure, to avoid pushing up global oil prices and triggering large - scale retaliation from Iran [3] - Navy Escort Issue: There were inconsistent statements about US Navy escorting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. US Energy Secretary Wright first announced and then deleted a message about a successful escort. Iran's Revolutionary Guard said that any US fleet action would be blocked [3]