PVC:回归基本面，市场短期承压

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the easing of the Middle - East situation, crude oil prices have dropped significantly. PVC futures have returned to fundamentals, and the market is under short - term pressure. The domestic PVC market fundamentals have not improved significantly in the short term. Supply - side pressure continues to accumulate, and demand shows a "weak recovery" trend, with limited export improvement [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - PVC 05 contract futures price is 5466, the East China spot price is 5150, the basis is - 316, and the 5 - 9 month spread is - 111 [1]. - The domestic PVC spot market is in a weak shock. The fixed - price is stable. Affected by large fluctuations in energy, PVC shows risk - aversion decline during trading. There are many basis transactions. The transaction price center has large fluctuations today. The ex - warehouse pick - up price of East China calcium carbide - based type 5 PVC is 5000 - 5400 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 6100 - 6400 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Market Condition Analysis - Supply - side: The enterprise operating load remains around 81%, and social inventory is at a high level. Although some enterprises plan spring maintenance, the high - supply situation is difficult to reverse in the short term [2]. - Demand - side: It shows a "weak recovery" trend. Although it has entered the traditional peak season and downstream product enterprises' resumption of work drives some rigid demand, due to the overall downturn of the real estate industry, the demand for dominant hard products lacks follow - up [2]. - Export: Short - term export inquiries have improved, but the boosting effect is limited [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The PVC trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [2].