申万期货品种策略日报-天胶-20260311

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the natural rubber market rebounded. In terms of fundamentals, natural rubber is in a seasonal low - production stage. Domestic production areas have stopped tapping, and Thai production areas are also gradually ceasing. The low - production season usually lasts until May. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao, China, continues to accumulate. In the short term, the elasticity of the supply side weakens, and the price of raw rubber is relatively firm. On the demand side, there is support for the expected resumption of post - holiday production. The start - up of all - steel tires is expected to be stable. Crude oil has fallen after rising, driving down synthetic rubber, but natural rubber has stopped falling and rebounded, showing an independent trend. In the short term, the external influence weakens, and the rubber price is expected to fluctuate and strengthen [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Price and Change: The previous day's closing prices of RU, NR, and BR were 17115, 13685, and 14975 respectively, with price changes of 220, 75, and - 750, and percentage changes of 1.30%, 0.55%, and - 4.77% respectively. The price differences between RU - BR, NR - BR, and RU - NR were 3430, 2140, and - 1290 respectively, with changes of 145, 970, and 825 [2] - Volume and Position: The trading volumes of RU, NR, and BR were 404983, 96016, and 227827 respectively. The positions were 147583, 65749, and 56479 respectively, with position changes of 3128, 276, and - 7237 [2] - Basis: The current basis of RU, the difference between mixed rubber and RU, and the difference between smoked sheet and RU were - 115, - 1400, and 2885 respectively [2] Spot Market - Domestic Spot: The current prices of whole - milk rubber in Shandong, Shanghai, and Kunming were 16900, 17000, and 16950 respectively, with percentage changes of 1.50%, 1.49%, and 1.19%. The current prices of smoked sheet in Shandong and Shanghai were 19950 and 20000 respectively, with a percentage change of 1.27%. The current prices of mixed rubber in Qingdao and Yunnan were 15715 and 16550 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.10% and - 0.45% [2] - Downstream Spot: The current prices of Thai smoked sheet, Thai cup rubber, and Thai latex were 71.89, 59.33, and 69.8 (in Thai baht per kilogram) respectively, with percentage changes of 0.39%, 1.68%, and 0.43% [2]