格林大华期货早盘提示：三油-20260311

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall upward trend of the oil market remains unchanged, and there is still an expectation of an increase after the gap is filled. The double - meal market has given back its previous gains due to the decline in macro - sentiment [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情复盘 - On March 10, due to the end of the US - Iran conflict and the pressure of multiple countries releasing oil reserves, international crude oil prices dropped significantly, driving the collective and rapid decline of vegetable oils. The main contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased, with varying degrees of position reduction or increase. The double - meal also followed the decline due to the weakening of the overall commodity market caused by the sharp drop in international crude oil [1][2]. 3.2重要资讯 3.2.1 Oil - related - The US - Iran war is expected to end quickly, and international crude oil futures tumbled more than 11% on Tuesday. The US and India reached a temporary trade agreement framework, with India canceling or reducing tariffs on US industrial products, food, and agricultural products, and the US reducing the so - called reciprocal tariff rate on Indian goods from 25% to 18%. The US Environmental Protection Agency will submit a new biofuel blending volume authorization proposal to the White House, and the rule may be finalized by the end of March. The US government plans to require large refineries to make up at least half of the biofuel blending exemption quota, which is expected to boost the demand for raw materials such as soybean oil. The Malaysian MPOB report shows that the inventory at the end of February decreased by 3.94% to 2.7 million tons, production decreased by 18.55% to 1.28 million tons, and exports decreased by 22.48% to 1.13 million tons. Indian buyers have locked in a large amount of soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, 150,000 tons per month of South American soybean oil. The shipping survey agency ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports in February decreased by 21.5% compared with January. As of the 9th weekend of 2026, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils increased by 2.23% week - on - week and decreased by 7.93% year - on - year [1]. 3.2.2 Double - meal related - Analysts' average forecast for the US 2025/26 annual soybean ending inventory in the USDA March supply - demand report is 344 million bushels. Due to the US and Israel's attacks on Iran, the geopolitical tension in the Middle East has intensified, and the soybean exports of Brazil and the US may decline in the next few weeks. The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in March 2026 will be 16.09 million tons, a 2.3% increase from March 2025. As of the 8th weekend of 2026, the domestic imported soybean inventory increased, the domestic soybean meal inventory decreased slightly, and the contract volume increased significantly. The domestic imported rapeseed inventory increased, and the imported rapeseed meal inventory and contract volume remained unchanged [2][3]. 3.3市场逻辑 3.3.1 Oil - related - Externally, the US president's statement and the G7's consideration of releasing oil reserves led to a significant decline in crude oil futures. The weakening of the US - Iran dispute and bearish supply - demand data caused the Malaysian palm oil to fall. In the soybean oil and palm oil markets, trading is not active, the market is in a state of stagnant rise and correction, and traders are waiting for further price drops. The supply is sufficient, and the basis may rise slightly if the market corrects significantly. The future trend of Zhengzhou rapeseed oil depends on the evolution of the Middle East geopolitical conflict [1][2]. 3.3.2 Double - meal related - Externally, the White House's statement and the G7's plan to release oil reserves led to a sharp decline in international oil prices. The increase in fuel surcharges by shipping companies limited the decline of the futures price. The domestic oil mill quotes decreased with the market, and the near - month basis quotes were relatively firm. Feed enterprises are replenishing inventory, but the willingness to chase the rise is limited, and the overall market is in a state of just - in - time procurement. The rapeseed meal market is also affected by the market decline, and the terminal feed mills are in a wait - and - see state [3]. 3.4交易策略 3.4.1 Oil - related - For single - side trading, those who already hold long positions in low - priced oils should continue to hold, and new long positions can be slightly added after the gap is filled. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for different contracts [2]. 3.4.2 Double - meal related - Existing long positions should be closed, and wait for the opportunity to buy again after the correction. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for different contracts [3].