格林大华期货早盘提示：白糖-20260311

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the sugar sector is "oscillating" [1] - The investment rating for the jujube sector is "oscillating" [4] - The investment rating for the rubber sector is "oscillating" [5] Core Views - For sugar, the external market is affected by the expected easing of the Middle - East situation, and the upward movement of raw sugar is restricted. The internal market has support below, and the international sugar market fundamentals are bullish in the short - term. However, there are still bearish factors in the medium - to - long - term. It is recommended to take a short - to - medium - term view of long positions and consider technical indicators for partial profit - taking [1] - For jujubes, the downstream sales are average, the spot price is stable, and there is a lack of positive factors. As the weather warms, the weak demand will be more obvious. In the medium - term, the supply - demand structure does not support continuous upward movement. It is recommended to short on rallies [4] - For rubber, natural rubber is in a supply - off season in Southeast Asia, but the domestic production area is approaching the tapping season, and the cost support may weaken. The downstream semi - steel tire has good domestic sales, and the short - term operation rate will remain high. It is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation. Synthetic rubber is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the cost pressure of butadiene may suppress the production capacity utilization rate. It is necessary to pay attention to overseas situations and crude oil trends [5] Summary by Variety Sugar - Market Conditions: SR605 closed at 5409 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.05%, and 5417 yuan/ton at night. SR609 closed at 5431 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.33%, and 5438 yuan/ton at night [1] - Important Information: ICE raw sugar main contract was 14.32 cents/pound yesterday with a daily decline of 2.05%. Guangxi's spot white sugar price dropped 62 yuan/ton to 5393 yuan/ton. As of the end of February 2026, Guangxi produced 565.13 million tons of mixed sugar with a sugar - production rate of 12.28%. In India's Maharashtra state, as of March 3, 2026, 113 sugar mills had stopped production, and 97 were still operating. The cumulative sugar production was 9.5031 billion tons, an increase of about 1.7805 billion tons compared to the same period last year [1] - Market Logic: The external market is affected by the Middle - East situation, and the internal market has support below. The international sugar market fundamentals are bullish in the short - term, but there are bearish factors in the medium - to - long - term [1] - Trading Strategy: Hold long positions and observe. Pay attention to the 5350 - 5500 yuan/ton range for SR605 [1] Jujube - Market Conditions: CJ605 closed at 8985 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.83%. CJ609 closed at 8355 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.90% [4] - Important Information: Last week, the domestic jujube sample inventory was 11,817 tons, a decrease of 35 tons from the previous week, a 0.30% month - on - month decrease and an 8.04% year - on - year increase. The wholesale price of Hebei's special - grade jujubes dropped 0.01 yuan/kg to 9.20 yuan/kg yesterday [4] - Market Logic: The downstream sales are average, and there is a lack of positive factors. As the weather warms, the weak demand will be more obvious. In the medium - term, the supply - demand structure does not support continuous upward movement [4] - Trading Strategy: Short CJ605 on rallies [4] Rubber - Market Conditions: The main contract of RU closed at 17,115 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.30%. The main contract of NR closed at 13,685 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.55%. The main contract of BR closed at 14,935 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 5.68% [5] - Important Information: Thailand's raw material glue price was 69.8 baht/kg, and cup - rubber price was 57.8 baht/kg. As of March 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 6.804 million tons, a 0.07% increase from the previous period [5] - Market Logic: Natural rubber is in a supply - off season in Southeast Asia, but the domestic production area is approaching the tapping season, and the cost support may weaken. Synthetic rubber is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the cost pressure of butadiene may suppress the production capacity utilization rate [5] - Trading Strategy: Wait and see for natural rubber. Partially exit long positions for BR and continue to hold put options [5]