LPG：地缘不确定性较高：丙烯：成本端地缘扰动，供应存减量预期

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint No explicit core viewpoint is presented in the report. It mainly focuses on providing fundamental data and market information about LPG and propylene. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: For LPG futures, on March 10, 2026, the 2604 contract closed at 5,272 with a daily decline of 6.13%, and the night - session closed at 5,220 with a decline of 0.99%. The trading volume was 255,167, an increase of 20,358 from the previous day, and the open interest was 60,028, a decrease of 18,452. Similar data is provided for other contracts (2605, 2606). For propylene (PL) futures, the 2604 contract closed at 7,490 with a daily decline of 3.03%, and the night - session closed at 7,293 with a decline of 2.63%. The trading volume was 256, an increase of 171 from the previous day, and the open interest was 1,297, a decrease of 21 [1]. - Spot Market: In the LPG spot market, prices and changes vary by region. For example, the price of Shandong civil LPG was 6,420, with a change of - 890 from the previous day, and the main - contract basis was 1,148, a decrease of 546. In the propylene spot market, the price of Shandong was 8,800, a decrease of 950 from the previous day, and the main - contract basis was 1,327, a decrease of 725 [1]. - Industrial Chain开工率: As of March 6, 2026, the PDH operating rate was 64.93%, an increase of 1.7 from the previous week; the alkylation operating rate was 39.19%, an increase of 0.39; the MTBE operating rate was 67.72%, an increase of 0.5 [1]. - LPG Shipment Volume: On March 10, 2026, the global LPG shipment volume from the US was 16.5 (in ten thousand tons), a decrease of 0.4 from the previous day; the shipment volume to Asia was 8.7, an increase of 4.1. From the Middle East, the global shipment volume was 0.0, a decrease of 4.6; the shipment volume to Asia was 0.0, a decrease of 4.6 [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 1, and the trend intensity of propylene is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, where - 2 represents the most bearish view and 2 represents the most bullish view [5]. 3.3 Market Information - On March 10, 2026 (Singapore closing time), the April CP paper - cargo price of propane was 580 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 13 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the price of butane was 580 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 13 US dollars/ton. The May CP paper - cargo price of propane was 575 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 20 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [6]. - Multiple domestic PDH plants have ongoing or planned maintenance. For example, Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. started PDH plant maintenance on May 12, 2023, with an undetermined end - date, and its production capacity is 15 [7]. - Several domestic LPG plants also have maintenance plans. For example, Shangneng Petrochemical in Shandong had a full - plant maintenance from February 5, 2026, to March 5, 2026, with a normal production volume of 120 and a loss volume of 120 [7].