国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20260311

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - Nickel: Tightness in the ore end supports the current situation, while inventory accumulation in smelting limits its elasticity [2][4]. - Stainless steel: Macroeconomic risk appetite causes disturbances, and the actual cost center has shifted upward [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: Attention should be paid to market sentiment disturbances [2][12]. - Industrial silicon: The overall situation is weak [2][17]. - Polysilicon: Demand is declining [2][18]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: On March 11, 2026, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 137,050 yuan, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 14,225 yuan. The price of 1 imported nickel was 138,200 yuan, and the ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was 1,086 yuan [4]. - Macro and Industry News: The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026; the Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala; the Indonesian government's approved nickel ore production quota is between 260 million and 270 million tons; a landslide occurred in the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, resulting in one death and suspension of operations in the affected area [4][5][8]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11]. Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: On March 11, 2026, the closing price of the 2605 contract was 163,000 yuan, and the closing price of the 2607 contract was 162,700 yuan. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 158,500 yuan [14]. - Macro and Industry News: Fulin Jinggong's subsidiary has a production capacity of 300,000 tons of high - density lithium iron phosphate cathode materials and is promoting the construction of new production capacity; Tianci Materials plans to build a new energy materials industrial park in Yichang, Hubei [15][16]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [16]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: On March 11, 2026, the closing price of the Si2605 contract was 8,625 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the PS2605 contract was 42,450 yuan/ton. The social inventory of industrial silicon was 553,000 tons, and the factory inventory of polysilicon was 348,000 tons [18]. - Macro and Industry News: The Shanghai Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on the application for the development and construction plan of on - shore wind power and photovoltaic power stations in 2026 [19]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [20].