国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20260311

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Gold: Geopolitical conflicts have broken out [2][4]. - Silver: Attention should be paid to liquidity contraction [2][5]. - Copper: The narrowing of domestic spot discounts supports prices [2][8]. - Zinc: It shows a range - bound oscillation [2][11]. - Lead: The increase in domestic inventories exerts downward pressure on prices [2][14]. - Tin: It is in an oscillatory adjustment [2][17]. - Aluminum: It remains relatively strong [2][21]. - Alumina: It returns to the fundamentals [2][21]. - Cast aluminum alloy: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][21]. - Platinum: It oscillates following gold and silver [2][23]. - Palladium: It failed to reach a high and remains sluggish [2][24]. - Nickel: Tightness at the ore end supports the current situation, while inventory accumulation in smelting limits its elasticity [2][28]. - Stainless steel: Macroeconomic risk appetite causes disturbances, and the real - cost center has shifted upwards [2][28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Fundamentals: The prices of domestic and foreign gold futures and spot markets showed different trends. For example, Comex gold 2602 rose by 1.02%, while Shanghai gold 2602 fell by 2.45%. Trading volumes and positions also changed, with Shanghai gold 2602's trading volume increasing by 25,719 and positions decreasing by 13,351. ETF and inventory data also showed changes, such as SPDR gold ETF's position decreasing by 18 [5]. - News: Geopolitical news included the US Navy's contradictory information on escort in the Strait of Hormuz, which caused fluctuations in the crude oil market, and China's February export and import growth rate returning to double - digits [5][7]. Silver - Fundamentals: Prices generally showed an upward trend, with Comex silver 2602 rising by 1.78%. Trading volumes and positions changed, and inventory decreased. For example, Comex silver's inventory decreased by 2,391,537 ounces [5]. - News: Similar to gold, it was affected by geopolitical and macro - economic news [5][7]. Copper - Fundamentals: The prices of Shanghai and London copper futures increased, with Shanghai copper's main contract rising by 1.33%. Futures inventory and spot price spreads also changed, such as the spot - to - futures near - month spread changing from - 45 to 0 [8]. - News: Geopolitical news included the tense situation between the US and Iran, and industry news included Revere copper products company increasing investment in the US and Mongolia's re - negotiation of the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine's commercial terms [8][10]. Zinc - Fundamentals: Shanghai and London zinc prices showed different trends, with Shanghai zinc's main contract falling by 0.02% and London zinc rising by 0.20%. Inventory increased, and price spreads and premiums also changed [11]. - News: China's foreign trade growth rate returned to double - digits, and there was geopolitical news related to the Strait of Hormuz [12]. Lead - Fundamentals: Shanghai and London lead prices declined, with Shanghai lead's main contract falling by 0.54%. Inventory increased, and price spreads and import - related data changed [14]. - News: Geopolitical news included the tense situation between the US and Iran and China's foreign trade growth [15]. Tin - Fundamentals: Shanghai and London tin prices rose, with Shanghai tin's main contract rising by 2.24%. Inventory decreased, and prices in the industrial chain, such as tin concentrate and solder, also increased [18]. - News: It included geopolitical news and news about the robot mobile phone [20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Fundamentals: Aluminum prices remained relatively strong, alumina returned to the fundamentals, and cast aluminum alloy followed electrolytic aluminum. There were changes in futures prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory, and price spreads in each market [21]. - News: Geopolitical news included the possibility of the US and Iran negotiating and the US's high - intensity strike on Iran. There was also news about the possible decline in oil prices if the situation in the Strait of Hormuz improved [22]. Platinum and Palladium - Fundamentals: Platinum prices generally rose, while palladium prices showed different trends. There were changes in trading volumes, positions, inventory, and price spreads [24]. - News: Geopolitical news included the tense situation between the US and Iran, the possible negotiation between the US and Iran, and the reduction in oil production by Middle - Eastern countries [27]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamentals: Nickel prices were supported by tight ore supply but limited by smelting inventory. Stainless steel was affected by macro - risk appetite and cost. There were changes in futures prices, trading volumes, positions, and prices in the industrial chain [28]. - News: Industry news included Indonesia's plan to revise the nickel ore benchmark price formula, the restart of a nickel mine in Guatemala, and various incidents in the Indonesian nickel industry, such as landslides and sanctions [28][33].