国新国证期货早报-20260311

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on March 10, 2026 - A - shares: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.65% to 4123.14 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.04% to 14354.07 points, and the Chi - Next Index rose 3.04% to 3306.14 points. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 24170 billion yuan, a decrease of 2539 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - CSI 300 Index: Closed at 4674.76, a rise of 59.3 [2]. 2. Futures Market Performance 2.1 Energy and Chemicals - Coke: The weighted index fluctuated widely, closing at 1693.9, a decline of 75.3. Port coke spot prices rose, with Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at 1480 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. Steel mills mainly purchase on - demand [2][4]. - Coking Coal: The weighted index was range - bound, closing at 1147.0 yuan, a decline of 45.0. Some coal prices in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia rose. Supply is sufficient, and some coke enterprises have implemented production restrictions [3][4]. - Palm Oil: The main contract P2605 closed at 9462, a decline of 2.65%. Malaysia's February palm oil production, exports decreased, imports increased, and inventory decreased [6]. - Asphalt: The main contract 2604 oscillated and declined, with a decline of 4.78% to 3746 yuan. As refineries resume production, asphalt prices may follow oil prices [7]. 2.2 Agricultural Products - Sugar: Affected by the war between the US, Israel and Iran, the US sugar rose on Monday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract oscillated downwards on Tuesday and then slightly rose at night. India's sugar production forecast for 2025 - 26 was cut by 4.4% [4]. - Soybean Meal: The CBOT soybean main contract rose 0.59% to 1203.25 cents/bushel. The domestic main contract M2605 rose 1.24% to 3010 yuan/ton. China's 1 - 2 month soybean imports decreased 7.8% year - on - year [6]. - Live Pigs: The main contract LH2605 closed at 11180 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.18%. The market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [6]. - Cotton: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 15510 yuan/ton at night. Cotton inventory increased by 303 lots [7]. 2.3 Metals - Copper: The main contract of Shanghai copper rose 1.66% to 101520 yuan/ton. Spot prices rose, and the basis strengthened. Supply is tight, and demand is expected to improve in the "Golden March and Silver April" [6][7]. - Iron Ore: The main contract 2605 oscillated and closed up 0.26% to 784 yuan. Shipping decreased, arrivals increased, and prices are in an oscillatory trend [7]. - Steel: The rb2605 contract was at 3104 yuan/ton, and the hc2605 contract was at 3256 yuan/ton. Steel mills' production resumption is slow, demand recovery is mild, and costs support is weakening [7]. - Alumina: The ao2605 contract closed at 2839 yuan/ton. Demand is supported by high - start electrolytic aluminum, but supply pressure is increasing [7]. - Aluminum: The al2604 contract was at 24880 yuan/ton. Supply is stable, inventory pressure is rising, and demand is weak [7][8]. 2.4 Others - Rubber: Shanghai rubber stopped falling and rebounded on Tuesday and oscillated at night. Inventory in Qingdao increased slightly [4][6]. - Log: The 2605 main contract closed at 791.5, with 1079 lots of position reduction. Some spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were stable or decreased. 1 - 2 month imports decreased by 11.2% year - on - year [7]. 3. Outlook and Suggestions - Soybean Meal: Track South American weather, Middle - East situation, and soybean arrival rhythm [6]. - Live Pigs: Pay attention to the culling progress of sows, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises, and terminal consumption recovery [6]. - Copper: Focus on "Golden March" consumption and inventory reduction, as well as geopolitical risks and capital movements [7]. - Log: Monitor spot prices, import data, shipping costs, inventory changes, and market sentiment [7].