有色金属行业双周报：地缘冲突扰动供给，金银大幅震荡-20260311

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, emphasizing opportunities driven by supply rigidity and demand resilience [4]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry index increased by 0.29% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index and ranking 14th among 31 sectors [1][11]. - Key price movements include significant increases in aluminum (10.87%), tungsten (30.58%), and molybdenum (7.48%), while industrial metals like copper and energy metals saw declines [2][17][28][43]. - Geopolitical tensions have disrupted supply chains, particularly affecting aluminum and tungsten prices, while demand from the military sector is expected to rise due to ongoing conflicts [4][38][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review (2026.2.23-2026.3.6) - The non-ferrous metals index rose by 0.29%, with small metals (5.45%), precious metals (4.29%), and new metal materials (0.39%) increasing, while industrial metals (-1.37%) and energy metals (-2.90%) decreased [1][11]. 2. Precious Metals - As of March 6, COMEX gold closed at $5,181.30 per ounce, up 1.00% over two weeks, and year-to-date up 19.60% [18]. - COMEX silver closed at $84.70 per ounce, with a slight increase of 0.15% over two weeks and a year-to-date increase of 19.32% [18][19]. - The report suggests focusing on companies like Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold due to the ongoing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [20]. 3. Industrial Metals - LME copper settled at $12,808.00 per ton, up 0.45% over two weeks, with a year-to-date increase of 2.43% [28]. - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions on copper prices and suggests monitoring companies like Zijin Mining and Jiangxi Copper [28]. 4. Small Metals - Molybdenum prices increased to 4,455 yuan per ton, up 7.48% over two weeks, driven by supply disruptions and increased military demand [37][38]. - Tungsten prices surged to 918,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a 30.58% increase over two weeks due to supply constraints and rising demand from the solar energy sector [43][44]. 5. Rare Earths - The rare earth price index reached 295.42, up 1.80% over two weeks, with significant increases in lanthanum and cerium prices [53][54]. - Companies like China Rare Earth and Northern Rare Earth are recommended for investment due to the tightening supply and increasing demand [54]. 6. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices averaged 431,500 yuan per ton, up 1.17% over two weeks, while lithium carbonate prices rose to 155,250 yuan per ton, reflecting an 8.95% increase [58][59]. - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in lithium and cobalt production due to their strong market performance [58].