沪镍期货周报-20260311

Report Overview - Report Type: Weekly Report - Report Title: Shanghai Nickel Futures Weekly Report - Date of Completion: March 6, 2026 - Researcher: Du Yu (Qualification Number: F3075043; Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0017815) [1] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, the nickel futures price fell below the 140,000 RMB integer mark, reaching a low of 134,480 RMB. Although there was a slight rebound on Friday, the overall trend is still downward. There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the supply gap of Indonesian nickel ore, the growth of new energy industry demand, and a slight decline in LME inventory. Negative factors include macro - economic uncertainty, capital outflows from the futures market, and a weakening price technical pattern. The market needs to continue to track the dynamics of Indonesian export policies and changes in market liquidity expectations. [5][6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - This week, the nickel futures (NI.SHF) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed a trend of oscillating downward and then rebounding slightly. The price center of gravity moved down compared with last week. The highest price was 141,550 RMB/ton on Monday, and the lowest price was 134,480 RMB/ton on Wednesday. The weekly fluctuation range reached 7,070 RMB/ton, indicating cautious market sentiment. [2] 3.2 Spot Market Analysis - This week, the spot price of imported nickel (1) in China showed an oscillating downward trend, falling from $20,023.24/ton on March 2 to $19,862.90/ton on March 6, a cumulative decline of 0.80%. Notably, the decline in the spot price was less than that of the futures price (3.11%), indicating that the spot market was relatively resistant to decline. [3] 3.3 Market Dynamics - On March 2, the conflict between the US and Iran escalated. The US and Israel launched military strikes against Iran, causing traffic disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and increasing global risk - aversion sentiment. Although nickel is not a directly affected variety, the decline in market risk preference indirectly affects the price trend of industrial products. Tensions in the Middle East led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, and the increase in energy costs may increase the production costs of nickel smelting enterprises, providing potential support for nickel prices. [4] 3.4 Market Outlook - The nickel futures price is in a downward trend. Positive factors are the supply gap of Indonesian nickel ore, the growth of new energy industry demand, and a slight decline in LME inventory. Negative factors are macro - economic uncertainty, capital outflows from the futures market, and a weakening price technical pattern. It is necessary to continue to track the dynamics of Indonesian export policies and changes in market liquidity expectations. [6]