2026年03月09日：能源日报-20260311

Report Industry Investment Rating - Crude oil: ★★★ [5] - Fuel oil: ★★★ [5] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ [5] - Asphalt: ★★★ [5] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical risk premium of the oil market has decreased, but the Middle East military conflict continues and the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is still severely restricted, leading to substantial supply disruptions and expected high oil prices before the strait resumes normal traffic [2] - The fuel oil market is under pressure, but the supply of high-sulfur fuel oil is expected to be tight, and the low-sulfur fuel oil is affected by the geopolitical situation but its trend is expected to be weaker [3] - Domestic asphalt production is adjusted downward, inventory pressure is not large, and its trend will follow crude oil with limited volatility [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - On March 9, after Trump said the US military action against Iran would end soon, the market lowered the geopolitical risk premium expectation, and oil prices dropped significantly. Brent and WTI crude oil once fell below $90/barrel, and the SC main contract closed down 10.8% [2] - The Middle East military conflict continues, only a few ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and the shipping volume is extremely low. The actual increase in transportation volume through alternative pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE is less than 1 million barrels per day, far lower than the theoretical potential of 4 million barrels per day [2] - Shipping disruptions have caused substantial supply interruptions. Iraq has cut production by about 1.5 million barrels per day, and major oil fields such as Rumaila have significantly reduced production. Kuwait has reduced supply by 300,000 barrels per day. The crude oil storage space in Saudi Arabia and the UAE can only last for a few days. If the strait remains blocked, more oil-producing countries are expected to follow suit in reducing production [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - After Trump said the war would "end soon", the overnight external crude-oil related varieties tumbled, and the fuel oil market was under great pressure today. The news of ships queuing outside the Strait of Hormuz further weakened prices [3] - The outcome of the war is still highly uncertain, and the market will repeatedly trade on the core variable of "whether the strait can resume normal traffic". Even if the warring countries announce a ceasefire, shipowners usually need to observe a period without attacks before gradually resuming traffic. The recovery of shipping trade volume is likely to be a "slow climb", and the supply chain disruption may last longer than the war itself [3] - Due to inventory problems, some refineries in the Middle East have experienced supply disruptions, reduced production, or even shut down, and the supply gap is gradually emerging. At the same time, global logistics disruptions may also bring additional bunkering demand. High-sulfur fuel oil still faces supply loss pressure, and the expectation of tight supply may continue to support its fundamentals. The low-sulfur fuel oil is also affected by geopolitics, but its trend is expected to be weaker than that of high-sulfur fuel oil due to its relatively small impact from Middle Eastern production capacity [3] Asphalt - Domestic refining enterprises are worried about raw material supply, and some have started or plan to lower their capacity utilization rates. According to Longzhong data, the total asphalt production in March was revised to 1.967 million tons, a decrease of 220,000 tons from the original plan. Among them, the production of local refineries was 892,000 tons, at a low level in recent years [4] - The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries increased week-on-week last week, but the cumulative year-on-year decline widened week-on-week. The refinery inventory is at the lowest level in the past three years year-on-year, and the social inventory is the same as last year year-on-year. The overall commercial inventory pressure is not large [4] - On March 9, after Trump said the US military action against Iran would end soon, the market's geopolitical premium expectation declined, and oil prices tumbled. However, due to the lag in the previous increase of asphalt and the improvement in fundamental expectations, the decline of BU was limited. In the future, it is necessary to closely monitor the situation between the US, Israel, and Iran and the changes in the shipping situation in the strait. Before the strait resumes normal traffic, oil prices are expected to remain highly volatile, and the asphalt trend will still follow crude oil but with limited volatility [4]