玻璃期货周报-20260311

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The glass futures main contract FG2605 showed a "first decline then rise" trend this week. The spot price remained stable, and the basis narrowed from 84 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 47 yuan/ton at the weekend, indicating the repair of the futures discount to the spot. There is still a contradiction between high inventory and slow demand recovery in the industrial end, but the policy expectation and technical analysis jointly drive a short - term rebound. It is expected to continue the volatile and strong pattern next week [8] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - This week, the glass main contract FG2605 opened at 1067 yuan/ton, with the lowest reaching 1027 yuan/ton. Driven by macro - policy expectations and the sentiment of demand recovery on Friday, it reached a maximum of 1093 yuan/ton and closed at 1087 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.87%. The average daily trading volume was 1.287 million lots, a 15% increase from last week, and the position increased slightly by 2% [2] 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Basis Data - This week, the basis fluctuated in the range of 47 - 91 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the week, affected by the futures correction, the basis expanded to 91 yuan/ton. On Friday, as the futures rose sharply, the basis narrowed to 47 yuan/ton, and the basis rate dropped from 8.7% to 4.4%, with an obvious repair of the futures - spot discount [3] 3.2.2 Spot Data - The national average glass spot price remained stable at 1070.4 yuan/ton, with regional price differentiation. The large - plate price in North China was 1050 yuan/ton, in Central China was 1090 yuan/ton, and in East China was 1080 - 1100 yuan/ton. The operating rate of downstream deep - processing enterprises rebounded to 45% (a 10 - percentage - point increase from the previous period), but the order days were still only 6.5 days, and the procurement was mainly for small - order replenishment, with light trading [4] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industry Information - As of March 6, the total inventory of national sample enterprises was 53.56 million heavy boxes (a 0.5 - million - heavy - box increase from the previous period), and the inventory days were 23.5 days, at a high level in the same period of the past three years. Inventory accumulation was obvious in North China and East China [6] 3.3.2 Technical Analysis - The weekly K - line closed with a long lower shadow positive line. The green column of the MACD indicator shortened, and the DIFF and DEA formed a golden cross below the zero axis. The RSI rebounded to 55, getting out of the oversold range. The K - line of the KDJ indicator broke through the D - line, forming a golden cross. The short - term technical side is strong [7]