棕榈油期货周报-20260311

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The P2605 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the basis remaining between -50 and +50 yuan/ton. The upward movement is supported by high international oil prices, expected decline in Malaysian inventories, continuous Indian purchases, and strong domestic spot prices. The downward movement is limited by the domestic consumption off - season and the total inventory still at a historical high. The market sentiment is bullish but with increased volatility, and short - term fluctuations depend on the evolution of the Middle East situation, the release of official Malaysian inventory data, and the domestic terminal procurement rhythm [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil main contract P2605 for the week was 9,218 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 4.99%. The weekly high was 9,248 yuan/ton, and the low was 8,768 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 2.487 million lots, and the open interest was 375,530 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The basis structure was significantly repaired during the week. The discount of the main contract narrowed, and the contango of the near - month contract widened. The basis of the P2605 contract narrowed from -70 yuan/ton in the previous week to -18 yuan/ton, indicating a rapid convergence of the futures - spot price difference. The basis of the near - month contract P2603 widened from 176 yuan/ton to 376 yuan/ton, showing strong support from the spot end [4] 3.3 Influencing Factors - International crude oil prices strengthened: Affected by the escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, Brent crude oil rose sharply, driving up the expectation of biodiesel raw materials. Palm oil, as an important component of biodiesel, received cost - side support [5] - Strong import demand from India: In February, India's palm oil imports increased by 10.1% month - on - month, reaching a six - month high. The expanding price advantage of palm oil compared to soybean oil boosted the purchasing意愿 of refineries [6] - Macro and exchange - rate linkage: The stable RMB exchange rate did not put additional pressure on import costs. Coupled with the enhanced linkage of the international oil and fat market, it pushed up domestic futures prices following the external market [6]