HTSC·2026-03-11 02:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Longi Green Energy and Sungrow Power, and an "Add" rating for Yunda Co., Ltd [5] Core Insights - The hydrogen energy sector is expected to experience a nonlinear growth inflection point due to domestic and international policy alignment, with significant demand growth anticipated by 2030 [6][19] - The report highlights that the global demand for green hydrogen could reach 8.3 million tons by 2030, with domestic demand in China projected to grow nearly 15 times from 320,000 tons in 2024 to 5.06 million tons by 2030 [7][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of green hydrogen in achieving carbon neutrality goals, with various applications such as hydrogen-based heavy trucks, metallurgy, and chemical industries expected to drive demand [19][26] Summary by Sections Investment Overview - The hydrogen policy is at a turning point, with green electricity and equipment cost reductions paving the way for a new era of price parity [16] - The report identifies key beneficiaries in the hydrogen value chain, including project operators, ammonia production equipment suppliers, and electrolyzer manufacturers [12][18] Demand Side - Domestic non-electric consumption is set to drive a projected demand of 5.06 million tons of green hydrogen by 2030, with significant contributions from hydrogen-based heavy trucks, metallurgy, and chemical applications [21][26] - The report outlines that the EU's tightening carbon control policies will further enhance global demand for green hydrogen, particularly in shipping and aviation sectors [19][39] Supply Side - The report notes that the cost of green hydrogen production is heavily influenced by green electricity prices, which currently account for over 70% of production costs [8][19] - China is positioned to leverage its advantages in renewable energy and electrolyzer production, with a projected electrolyzer capacity of 48 GW by 2024, representing 60% of global capacity [9][19] Policy and Market Dynamics - The report discusses the implications of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on the steel industry, which is expected to drive demand for green hydrogen in metallurgy [39][41] - It highlights the potential for new business models, such as direct green electricity connections, to further reduce costs and enhance the competitiveness of green hydrogen [19][20]