蔚来-SW：Challenges remain despite 4Q25 beat on opex-20260311

11 Mar 2026 Maintain HOLD. We are of the view that NIO's R&D and SG&A expenses in 4Q25 are hard to sustain. As the Onvo L90 has likely been a one-hit wonder, we are concerned if any new models would follow the pattern given China's highly competitive market. We think NIO's profitability still trails its peers. Earnings Summary - NIO US | (YE 31 Dec) | FY23A | FY24A | FY25A | FY26E | FY27E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Revenue (RMB mn) | 55,618 | 65,732 | 87,488 | 128,659 | 147,282 | | YoY growth ...