GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2026-03-11 02:30Export Performance - In January-February 2026, China's export growth rate was 21.8%, up from 6.6% in the previous period, while import growth was 19.8%, up from 5.7%[8] - The trade surplus for January-February reached $213.6 billion, compared to $114.1 billion previously[8] - Monthly average exports in January-February showed a significant recovery, with a -8.2% month-on-month change compared to -19.7% in the same period of 2025[8] Regional Analysis - Exports to the US decreased by 11.0%, a significant improvement from a previous decline of 30.0%[11] - Exports to ASEAN increased by 29.4%, up from 11.1% previously, while exports to Latin America rose by 16.4% from 9.8%[11] - Exports to other regions grew by 26.7%, compared to 13.7% previously, with BRICS countries seeing a 23.0% increase from 12.0%[11] Product Categories - Most product categories, except raw materials and consumer electronics, showed a significant rebound in exports[14] - High-value products like electric vehicles and industrial robots are increasingly dominating the export structure, with low shipping cost-to-value ratios[20] Geopolitical Impact - Historical data indicates that Chinese exports demonstrate strong resilience during geopolitical conflicts, as seen during the 2024 Red Sea crisis[20] - The expectation of potential tariff increases by the Trump administration has led to a surge in exports ahead of policy clarifications[8] Short-term Outlook - March export growth is expected to decline from high levels, but overall growth resilience is anticipated to remain strong[21] - The replacement of IEEPA tariffs with 122 tariffs is expected to lower effective tax rates, maintaining the logic for preemptive exports[21] Risk Factors - Economic fluctuations in non-US and non-transshipment regions may have an unexpected impact on exports[22]