如何看待恒生科技未来走势？

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Technology Index has experienced a maximum drawdown of 28% since October 2025, with a cumulative decline of 25.3% as of March 2, 2026[2][10]. - The index saw a peak cumulative increase of 58% from early 2025 until its peak in October 2025[2]. Key Drivers of Decline - The decline is attributed to two main factors: a visible AI revaluation and a hidden adjustment in consumer earnings expectations[2][3]. - The first phase of decline (October 2, 2025, to November 21, 2025) was driven by a 19.3% drop in valuation, while the second phase (January 14, 2026, to March 2, 2026) saw a 15.6% decline, primarily affecting internet consumption and comprehensive platforms[10][12]. Sector Analysis - The technology sector remains under pressure, with AI hardware showing resilience while AI software has largely digested its revaluation since July 2025[3][31]. - Consumer sectors, particularly consumer electronics and home appliances, are under significant pressure, with earnings expectations still needing stabilization[3][37]. Future Outlook - The Hang Seng Technology Index is projected to stabilize between 4,500 and 4,850 points, with a neutral scenario around 4,690 points[42]. - Key catalysts for recovery include the stabilization of consumer earnings, a peak in competitive pressures, and positive developments in AI applications by major firms[4][42]. Investment Sentiment - Southbound capital has significantly increased its allocation to the Hang Seng Technology Index since August 2025, indicating a "buy the dip" mentality[4][49]. - The latest sentiment index reading is at 58, which has not yet triggered a buy signal, suggesting caution in the market[4][47].