沪胶，后市易跌难涨

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai rubber futures are likely to decline rather than rise in the future. The price trend of natural rubber highly depends on the supply rhythm of global main producing areas. The approaching new cutting season in Southeast Asia and the expected shift from tight to loose supply are the core driving forces for the seasonal weakening of rubber prices. Although the short - term price benefits from the resonance rise of the domestic energy - chemical commodity futures sector, the increase lags behind, and the futures may face the interference of rising supply pressure [2][6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Trading Logic Shift - In the first quarter, the natural rubber market is in the seasonal trough of global supply. The rubber trees in Southeast Asia and domestic main producing areas are in the cutting - off period, and the low - production situation supports the rebound of Shanghai rubber from January to February. In March, the supply - side contradiction shifts from "low - production support" to "cutting expectation", and the market pricing logic reverses. The global natural rubber production in main producing countries bottoms out in March, increases by about 3.26% month - on - month in April, and the growth rate in May further expands to over 16% [3]. - The futures market trades on expectations. The expected supply increase due to cutting is reflected in the price in advance. In March, the concentrated exit of long - position sentiment and the active trading of the "supply recovery" logic by funds push the futures price down, showing a trend of "early digestion of negative factors" [4]. Rubber Social Inventory - Affected by the Spring Festival holiday from January to February, the domestic tire enterprises' raw material procurement is mainly for rigid - demand replenishment, and the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao Bonded Area and the society continues to accumulate. As of March 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 67.99 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 8.82 million tons (14.91%) and a year - on - year increase of 23.65 million tons (53.16%). In March, although the downstream resumption of work improves, it cannot offset the expected supply growth. With the increase in shipping schedules after the cutting in Southeast Asia, the inventory will shift from "passive accumulation" to "active accumulation" [5].