甲醇：高位回落

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, methanol prices have fallen from their highs. From a macro perspective, there is a possibility of a phased decline in short - term geopolitical conflicts, causing energy - chemical commodities to follow the decline in energy prices. Fundamentally, the methanol fundamentals are neutral. Geopolitical news may significantly increase the intraday volatility of the market, and the trading logic changes rapidly with geopolitical news. [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - In the futures market, the closing price of the methanol main contract (05 contract) dropped from 2,830 yuan/ton to 2,549 yuan/ton, a decrease of 281 yuan/ton; the settlement price dropped from 2,758 yuan/ton to 2,599 yuan/ton, a decrease of 159 yuan/ton; the trading volume was 2,559,554 lots, down from 2,892,796 lots; the open interest decreased by 103,372 lots to 535,849 lots; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 500 tons to 9,896 tons; the trading volume decreased by 1,326,889 ten - thousand yuan to 6,652,037 ten - thousand yuan. The basis decreased by 34, and the spread between MA05 and MA09 decreased by 108. [2] - In the spot market, the Inner Mongolia price dropped from 2,300 yuan/ton to 2,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton, while the northern Shaanxi and Shandong prices remained unchanged at 2,280 yuan/ton and 2,520 yuan/ton respectively. [2] 3.2 Spot News - The methanol spot price index was 2334.06, a decrease of 125.33. The Taicang spot price was 2550, a decrease of 315, and the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 2210, a decrease of 122.5. Among the 20 large and medium - sized cities monitored by Longzhong, 14 cities saw varying degrees of price drops, with a decline range of 5 - 360 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol market was generally weak. The sharp decline in futures had a significant impact on trading sentiment. The port market dropped significantly, with the spot market mainly driven by rigid demand and some on - the - fence behavior, while the far - end market followed up at low prices and the basis remained stable. The inland market showed different price trends, with partial price increases in Shanxi, Hebei, Hubei, and Hunan, and rapid price drops in the northwest production areas, Henan, and Shandong. The trading volume in the trade link was still relatively abundant, and attention should be paid to the transfer rhythm of goods to downstream. [4] - As of March 4, 2026, the sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 144.35 tons, a decrease of 0.32 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.22%. This week, the methanol port inventory was basically stable, with accumulation in East China and inventory reduction in South China. During the period, 20.03 tons of visible foreign vessels were included, and the pick - up volume gradually recovered after the Spring Festival. There was concentrated unloading of foreign vessels in Jiangsu, leading to inventory accumulation due to increased supply; in Zhejiang, some foreign vessels being unloaded were not yet included, and the inventory slightly decreased under the background of rigid demand. The inventory in South China ports decreased. In Guangdong, a small amount of imported and domestic trade cargo was supplemented, and the pick - up volume in the mainstream storage areas increased steadily driven by the gradual recovery of downstream, resulting in inventory reduction. In Fujian, only a small amount of domestic trade cargo arrived at the port, and the inventory fluctuated little due to rigid demand consumption. [4][5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The methanol trend intensity was - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view. [6]