生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20260311

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not specified in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - Soft Commodities Sector - Sugar: International sugar supply - demand is improving. With Chinese southern sugar mills starting to wind down operations, the Zhengzhou sugar main contract can be considered for long - position entry upon stabilization. The SR2605 contract has a support level of 5300 - 5320 and a resistance level of 5600 - 5650 [2][22]. - Pulp: Overseas bleached softwood pulp has news of production cuts, which may support the current price of softwood pulp. The decline of pulp prices is limited, but the rebound space depends on the sustainability of production cuts. For the 2605 contract, the resistance is 5300 - 5400 yuan, and the support is 5150 - 5200 yuan. Short positions should temporarily exit and wait and see [5]. - Offset Paper: The spot price of offset paper is stable, while the pulp price has fallen from a high, weakening the cost support. The futures market is expected to fluctuate with the basis. The support is 4000 - 4050 yuan, and the resistance is 4250 - 4300 yuan. Short - position allocation is recommended for the short - term [8]. - Cotton: The external market is expected to bottom out and rise, providing external support for domestic cotton prices. Domestic cotton has medium - term fundamental support, and its price is expected to move up in the medium - term. In the short - term, it may show a platform consolidation. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 05 contract cautiously. The support range for the cotton 05 contract is estimated to be 14000 - 14200, and the resistance range is 15800 - 16000 [9][10]. - Fresh Fruit Sector - Apple: The overall supply of apples has a structural contraction, and the price is expected to remain high. The focus of the market will shift to consumption expectations and new - season weather disturbances. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies. The support range for the apple 2605 contract is 9000 - 9200, and the resistance range is 11000 - 11500 [11][12][22]. - Jujube: The jujube futures price is oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to exit short positions below 9000 points for the 2605 contract. Long - position holders can buy protective put options. Cautious investors can hold a short 2605 and long 2609 reverse spread. The support is 8700 - 9000 points, and the resistance is 9500 - 9800 points [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - Fresh Fruit Futures - Apple 2605: Reduce long positions on rallies. The supply - side support remains, and the overall futures price is expected to move up. Support: 9000 - 9200, Resistance: 11000 - 11500 [12][22]. - Jujube 2605: Buy on dips in the short - term. The expectation of production cuts may gradually be reflected in the far - month contracts, and the spot inventory has started to peak and decline. Support: 8700 - 9000, Resistance: 9500 - 9800 [14][22]. - Soft Commodity Futures - Sugar 2605: Bullish operation. The international sugar supply surplus has improved, and the supply - demand fundamentals in China are getting better. Support: 5300 - 5320, Resistance: 5600 - 5650 [22]. - Pulp 2605: Short - position allocation on rallies. The rise in the outer - market price of hardwood pulp has driven up the pulp futures, but the peak - season demand for finished paper needs verification, and the supply - demand improvement of bleached softwood pulp is limited. Support: 5130 - 5200, Resistance: 5350 - 5400 [22]. - Offset Paper 2605: Range - bound operation. The spot market is stable, but the demand has entered the off - season. Pay attention to the support after the futures price drops further and the basis widens. Support: 4000 - 4100, Resistance: 4250 - 4300 [22]. - Cotton 2605: Hold long positions cautiously. The long - term bullish expectations remain, but the rise of the external - market price is not confirmed, and the internal - external price difference restricts the domestic price. The short - term price may continue to consolidate. Support: 14000 - 14200, Resistance: 15800 - 16000 [22]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - Apple Market - Fundamentals: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. As of March 5, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 470,520 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 239,600 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 316,700 tons [23]. - Spot Market: The price of high - quality late - maturing bagged Fuji apples in Shandong and Shaanxi is stable, with more merchants in the market. The price in the sales area is also stable [23][24][25]. - Jujube Market: As of March 5, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 11,817 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 35 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.30%, and a year - on - year increase of 8.04%. The market is slowly recovering, and the inventory reduction speed is slow [26]. - Sugar Market: Uncertainty in the expectation of the Middle - East military conflict has led to a decline in sugar prices. As of March 9, 6 sugar mills in Guangxi have shut down for the season, with a daily shutdown capacity of 42,000 tons. India's sugar production in the 2025 - 26 season may reach 28.3 million tons. The ISO predicts that the global sugar production in the 2025/26 season will be 181.29 million tons. The Datagro agency expects a global sugar supply shortage of 800,000 tons in the 2025/26 season [28]. - Pulp Market: After the Spring Festival, the price of South American BHK pulp has increased by $10 per ton. Sellers plan to raise the price by another $20 per ton in March, but buyers are cautious. The domestic market has weak transactions, with increased port inventories [30]. - Offset Paper Market: The inventory days of offset paper decreased by 2.05% last week, with a narrowing decline rate. The operating load rate this week was 57.43%, with a narrowing increase rate. The industry's inventory reduction speed has slowed down [31]. - Cotton Market: In 2026, Brazil's cotton planting area is expected to be 2.05 million hectares, with an expected output of 3.83 million tons. As of March 7, Egypt's net cotton export contracts increased by 48.9% week - on - week. In January 2026, Australia's cotton export volume was about 53,000 tons. From January to February 2026, China's textile and clothing exports were $50.446 billion, a year - on - year increase of 17.65% [32][33]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - Futures Market Review - Apple 2605: The closing price was 10,303, up 16 or 0.16% [33]. - Jujube 2605: The closing price was 8,985, down 75 or 0.83% [33]. - Sugar 2605: The closing price was 5,409, down 27 or 0.50% [33]. - Pulp 2605: The closing price was 5,244, down 56 or 1.06% [33]. - Cotton 2605: The closing price was 15,320, up 35 or 0.23% [33]. - Spot Market Review - Apple: The spot price was 4.45 yuan per jin, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 0.45 yuan [40]. - Jujube: The spot price was 9.40 yuan per kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 5.30 yuan [40]. - Sugar: The spot price was 5,440 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 80 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 610 yuan [40]. - Pulp: The spot price of Shandong Yinxing pulp was 5,300 yuan, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 1,250 yuan [40]. - Offset Paper: The spot price of Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin offset paper was 4,350 yuan, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 700 yuan [40]. - Cotton: The spot price was 16,733 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 101 yuan and a year - on - year increase of 1,851 yuan [40]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation - Not summarized in detail as only relevant figures are presented in the content 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - Apple 5 - 10: The spread is 1,650, a month - on - month decrease of 14 and a year - on - year increase of 2,080. It is expected to fluctuate strongly. Recommend buying on dips [61]. - Jujube 5 - 9: The spread is - 370, a month - on - month increase of 10 and a year - on - year increase of 55. Recommend waiting and seeing [61]. - Sugar 5 - 9: The spread is - 22, a month - on - month decrease of 9 and a year - on - year decrease of 171. It is expected to fluctuate. Recommend waiting and seeing [61]. - Cotton 5 - 9: The spread is - 60, a month - on - month decrease of 5 and a year - on - year increase of 105. It is expected to fluctuate weakly. Recommend selling on rallies [61]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation - Not summarized in detail as only relevant figures are presented in the content 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apple: The number of warehouse receipts is 0, with no month - on - month or year - on - year change [86]. - Jujube: The number of warehouse receipts is 4,031, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 1,722 [86]. - Sugar: The number of warehouse receipts is 15,930, a month - on - month increase of 982 and a year - on - year decrease of 8,707 [86]. - Pulp: The number of warehouse receipts is 168,570, a month - on - month increase of 5,134 and a year - on - year decrease of 203,137 [86]. - Cotton: The number of warehouse receipts is 11,950, a month - on - month increase of 303 and a year - on - year increase of 4,011 [86]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data - Not summarized in detail as only relevant figures are presented in the content