纸浆数据日报-20260311

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The pulp futures are expected to fluctuate in the range of 5,200 - 5,400 yuan/ton. The lower limit is supported by the shutdown of a Finnish softwood pulp mill, while the upside is restricted by weak domestic demand and high inventory. There was a relatively large amount of warrant registration today [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - Futures Prices: On March 10, 2026, SP2701 was 5,484 yuan/ton with a -1.15% daily change and 0.92% weekly change; SP2609 was 5,304 yuan/ton with -1.04% daily and 0.53% weekly changes; SP2605 was 5,244 yuan/ton with -1.06% daily and 0.46% weekly changes [5]. - Spot Prices: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5,350 yuan/ton with 0.00% daily and 1.90% weekly changes; Russian Needle was 5,150 yuan/ton with 0.00% daily and 1.98% weekly changes; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4,600 yuan/ton with 0.00% daily and weekly changes [5]. - External Quotes and Import Costs: Chilean Silver Star's external quote was 710 dollars/ton with 0.00% monthly change, and its import cost was 5,802 yuan/ton with 0.00% monthly change; Chilean Star was 600 dollars/ton with 0.00% monthly change and 4,911 yuan/ton import cost with 0.00% monthly change; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars/ton with 0.00% monthly change and 5,073 yuan/ton import cost with 0.00% monthly change [5]. Pulp Fundamental Data - Import Volume: In December 2025, coniferous pulp import volume was 72.5 tons with a 7.31% monthly increase compared to November 2025; broadleaf pulp import volume was 176.5 tons with a -23.40% monthly decrease [5]. - Shipment to China: In January 2026, the shipment of pulp to China was 170 thousand tons with a -19.80% monthly decrease [5]. - Domestic Production: On March 5, 2026, broadleaf pulp domestic production was 24.3 tons; chemical mechanical pulp was 23.8 tons [5]. - Inventory: As of March 5, 2026, the pulp port inventory was 240.8 tons, a 0.7 - ton increase from the previous period, with a 0.3% monthly increase; the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 15.3 tons [5]. - Demand: On March 5, 2026, the production of double - offset paper was 19.80 tons; copperplate paper was 8.30 tons; tissue paper was 28.76 tons; white cardboard was 36.10 tons [5]. Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis - Supply: Chilean Arauco's March softwood pulp offer was 710 dollars/ton, unchanged; broadleaf pulp Star's offer was 620 dollars/ton, up 20 dollars/ton; natural pulp Venus's offer was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged [5]. - Demand: The demand for pulp has been stable recently. The price of finished paper is stable, and the production volume increased this week. The price increase letters issued by paper mills are expected to be difficult to implement [5]. - Inventory: As of March 5, 2026, the inventory of China's main pulp ports showed a cumulative increase trend. After the Spring Festival, the port inventory has shown a cumulative increase for two consecutive weeks [5].