黑色金属数据日报-20260311

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - Steel: After the sentiment cools, it returns to a volatile state. Unilateral trading returns to a wait - and - see approach, and attention is focused on the entry opportunities for hot - rolled coil positive spreads and the fluctuation range of the coil - to - rebar spread [2][8] - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Due to geopolitical conflicts, the market sentiment is extreme. Although prices strengthen in the short term, the upward space is limited, and the strategy is to go short - term long on dips [3][5][8] - Coking Coal and Coke: The market is mainly concerned about geopolitical changes. Unilateral trading is temporarily on hold, and consideration is given to gradually establishing positive spreads in the spot - futures market [6][8] - Iron Ore: The short - term recommendation is not to short black varieties. It's not advisable to chase short at low levels, and it's recommended to wait for the pressure level to short. In the medium - to - long - term, there is obvious upward pressure [7] Summary by Category Steel - On March 10, the closing prices of far - month contracts RB2610 and HC2610 were 3132.00 yuan/ton and 3268.00 yuan/ton respectively, with declines of 0.41% and 0.27%. The closing prices of near - month contracts RB2605 and HC2605 were 3104.00 yuan/ton and 3256.00 yuan/ton respectively, with declines of 0.42% and 0.18% [1] - The black sector currently has weak supply and demand. Production is affected around important meetings, and the inventory level is neutral. However, there are differences among varieties. In the future, it may enter a stage of strong supply and demand [2] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Geopolitical conflicts have led to extreme market sentiment and increased volatility of commodities. Fundamentally, supply and demand are both weak, with high inventory levels. Although prices strengthen in the short term, the upward space is limited [3][5] Coking Coal and Coke - On the spot side, after the market sentiment warmed up on Monday, the trading volume declined slightly on Tuesday. On the futures side, geopolitical conflicts dominate the market trend. After the so - called "end of the war" was declared, the prices of coal and coke fell back to the pre - rise level. The market is mainly concerned about changes in the Iranian situation [6] Iron Ore - There are still many rumors in the market, and oil price fluctuations have intensified. In the short term, it's not recommended to short black varieties, especially coal. Although iron ore rebounded last week, the marginal impact on supply is small. There is a certain restocking expectation, but port inventory is the root cause of pressure. It's recommended to wait for the pressure level to short [7]