格林大华期货研究院专题报告：G7发出释储信号，原油供给风险解除了吗？

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Large-scale release of strategic oil reserves can fill the supply gap in the Middle East to some extent, ease market concerns, and reduce speculative premiums in the market. The medium- and long-term oil market trend still depends on the restoration progress of the Strait of Hormuz navigation, the actual implementation rhythm of G7's reserve release, and the subsequent evolution of the Middle East conflict. These three factors will be the core variables guiding the crude oil trend. Currently, with the IEA discussing reserve release and Trump showing signs of releasing TACO, short-term oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely. If the reserve release is implemented, Brent crude is expected to trade in the range of $90 - $100 per barrel in the short term. Considering the conflict situation, if both the US and Iran show continuous confrontation, $90 per barrel is expected to form support; if the US continues to send out signals of negotiation, $85 per barrel is expected to form support. [2][14] Summary by Related Catalogs Current Situation of Oil Price and Reserve Release - On March 9, the price of Brent crude oil rose to nearly $120 per barrel. In response to the rapid rise in oil prices, the G7 discussed a joint release of strategic oil reserves, with a proposed scale of 300 - 400 million barrels, and the oil price increase quickly reversed. Currently, the G7 meeting has decided not to use the strategic oil reserves for the time being, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) is reported to have proposed releasing more than 182 million barrels of oil reserves. [1][3] Historical Cases of Reserve Release - There have been four large-scale joint releases of strategic crude oil reserves in history, namely during the 1991 Gulf War, the 2005 US Katrina hurricane, the 2011 Libyan war, and the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict. Except for the Gulf War, the other three reserve releases caused oil prices to fall by 7% - 9% from their highs in about a week. [2][3] Impact of Reserve Release on Oil Price - After the release of the news that the G7 was discussing a joint release of strategic oil reserves in the current Iran conflict, the price of Brent crude oil quickly回调 from $115 to $105, in line with the historical callback range. However, after the three historical price callbacks, due to the fundamental supply gap contradiction not being resolved, the oil price rebounded by 5% - 10% for a second time until the contradiction improved and the oil price gradually returned to normal. [8] Reserve Release Ability and Effect - There are significant differences in the reserve capacity and willingness of IEA member countries in the issue of SPR release. The US is communicating and evaluating the SPR reserve scale and actual release effect with other countries, but its current reserve level is at a historical low after continuous large-scale releases in 2022. In addition, the actual release effect may be lower than expected due to the constraints of transportation methods and downstream acceptance. [9]