聚酯链跌后反弹，核心仍在霍尔木兹海峡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On March 10, the main contracts of PX, PTA, PF, PR, and MEG in the polyester industry chain fluctuated significantly, first dropping sharply and then rebounding with narrower declines. The main reasons were Trump's statement that the war was basically over and the G7's plan to jointly release crude oil reserves, which led to a significant adjustment in crude oil prices. However, releasing strategic reserves can only slow down the rise of crude oil prices, and the fundamental issue lies in the passage situation of the Strait of Hormuz. The war has not completely ended, and the Strait of Hormuz has not resumed normal navigation, so there is a need to be vigilant about the risk of repeated fluctuations in the market [1]. - In terms of fundamentals, due to the excessive market fluctuations recently, spot market transactions are still scarce, and the market is currently in a wait - and - see mood. Some factories still maintain a closed - market or suspended - shipment status, and there are still supply risks and hoarding phenomena. The market also shows differentiation due to the fundamentals and inventory conditions of each variety. If the cost - side prices remain high, attention should be paid to the possible negative feedback effects such as production cuts in the downstream [1]. - The market focus recently has been on the Iranian situation. Under the tense situation, crude oil prices have risen. In the PX market, the PXN was $355/ton (a month - on - month increase of $51.88/ton). Affected by the Iranian situation, the Strait of Hormuz traffic is still low. Under the concern of supply interruption, the PX spot structure has changed to a Back structure, and the floating price has become stronger. The PTA operating rate has increased, and the polyester load is being restored, so the demand for PX has further increased. At the same time, the PX supply problem has further intensified, and the PX load has decreased, with a larger inventory reduction [2]. - In the TA market, the PTA spot basis is - 15 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of +0 yuan/ton), the PTA spot processing fee is 178 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 7 yuan/ton), and the main contract's processing fee on the disk is 360 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 33 yuan/ton). The weaving and polyester loads are slowly recovering from a low level. After the centralized restart of PTA devices, the inventory reduction rhythm has been postponed, and inventory has continued to accumulate in March. However, supported by costs, the PTA trend is strong, and the processing fee has been compressed. Currently, the PTA basis is also rebounding, and the futures and spot markets are rising in resonance. In the long - term, as the cycle of concentrated capacity release ends, the PTA processing fee is expected to gradually improve, and the long - term outlook is still good [2]. - In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate is 84.1% (a month - on - month increase of 4.6%). After the Spring Festival, the polyester and weaving loads have been gradually recovering. The continuous rise in raw material prices recently has also driven some speculative demand and inventory reduction. The inventory pressure of polyester products is not large, and the short - term price increase is relatively healthy. Currently, the inventories of domestic and foreign textile and clothing are not high. Attention should be paid to the downstream restocking actions and the situation of textile and clothing export orders. After the digestion of the existing raw material inventory, it may also have a negative feedback effect on the downstream operating rate [3]. - In the PF market, the spot production profit is 168 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 375 yuan/ton). The Middle East conflict has led to a sharp rise in oil prices, and the raw material prices have continued to soar. Direct - spun polyester staple fibers have quickly followed the price increase, but the increase is less than that of raw materials, and the processing margin of direct - spun polyester staple fibers has been compressed. The operating load of direct - spun polyester staple fibers is increasing. In the early stage of the price increase of staple fibers, the sales were active, and downstream customers stocked up intensively, and the factory inventory decreased. However, in the later stage, as the price reached a high level, the market entered a wait - and - see state [3]. - In the PR market, the bottle - chip spot processing fee is 622 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 173 yuan/ton). The price of polyester bottle - chips has risen significantly following the raw materials. In terms of fundamentals, after the Spring Festival, polyester bottle - chip devices have been restarted one after another, and the overall supply has increased slightly. The bottle - chip factories' shipments are relatively concentrated, and the inventory has decreased significantly. In the short term, the bottle - chip price increase is smooth, and the processing fee is expected to remain strong. Attention should be paid to the transaction situation after the continuous price increase [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Price and Basis - The report includes figures such as the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trend; PX main contract trend, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural - white basis [9][10][13] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [19][23] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures include toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [25][27] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [28][31][33] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures display the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, total PTA warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [39][41][42] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures include the production and sales of filaments and short - fibers, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament DTY factory inventory days, filament FDY factory inventory days, filament POY factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rate, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang printing and dyeing operating rate [49][51][59] PF Detailed Data - Figures cover 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled spread (1.4D polyester staple - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber), pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [70][77][80] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip, bottle - chip next - month spread (next month - base month), and bottle - chip next - next - month spread (next - next month - base month) [86][88][94]