通胀交易减弱，国债期货部分收涨

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The bond market oscillates between stable growth and easing expectations, with short - term focus on end - of - month policy signals. Influenced by the Middle East conflict, the LPR remains unchanged, and the Fed's rate - cut expectations and global trade uncertainties increase the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows [2] Summaries by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price Indicators: China's monthly CPI has a 1.00% month - on - month increase and a 1.30% year - on - year increase; monthly PPI has a 0.40% month - on - month increase and a - 0.90% year - on - year decrease [8] - Monthly Economic Indicators: Social financing scale is 449.11 trillion yuan, with a 6.99 - trillion - yuan month - on - month increase and a 1.58% growth rate; M2 year - on - year is 9.00%, with a 0.50% month - on - month increase and a 5.88% growth rate; manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, with a 0.30% month - on - month decrease and a 0.61% decline rate [9] - Daily Economic Indicators: The US dollar index is 98.93, with a 0.21 month - on - month increase and a 0.21% growth rate; the US dollar against the offshore RMB is 6.8778, with a 0.010 month - on - month decrease and a 0.15% decline rate; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.43, with a 0.01 month - on - month increase and a 0.63% growth rate; DR007 is 1.44, with a 0.01 month - on - month decrease and a 0.50% decline rate; R007 is 1.55, with a 0.01 month - on - month decrease and a 0.55% decline rate; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.52, with a 0.01 month - on - month increase and a 0.33% growth rate; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a 0.00 month - on - month increase and a 0.33% growth rate [10] II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The report presents figures on the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rates of various treasury bond futures varieties, the precipitation funds trend of various treasury bond futures varieties, the position ratio of various treasury bond futures varieties, the net position ratio of the top 20 in various treasury bond futures varieties, and the long - short position ratio of the top 20 in various treasury bond futures varieties [12][13][17] III. Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals - Figures related to the money market are provided, including the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, the issuance of treasury bonds, the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase transactions, and the issuance of local government bonds [26][27][24] IV. Spread Overview - The report shows figures on the inter - period spread trend of various treasury bond futures varieties, and the spread between the spot bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread in different combinations such as (4TS - T), (2TS - TF), (2TF - T), (3T - TL), and (2TS - 3TF + T) [37][32][34] V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures on the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TS main contract and the fund interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract are presented [41][43] VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures on the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TF main contract and the fund interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract are shown [45][57] VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures on the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the T main contract and the fund interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract are provided [53][54] VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures on the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TL main contract and the fund interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract are presented [60][61]