新能源及有色金属日报：下游复工，开始刚需采购-20260311

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [6] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking behavior in the spot market, but social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the levels of the past five years. Spot liquidity has improved, and procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported ores continues to rise, smelting profits are increasing, and smelting enthusiasm persists. The supply-side pressure continues to be prominent, and the domestic inventory accumulation is expected to continue even during the peak consumption season. If the expectations for the peak consumption season are not met, zinc prices will face significant pressure, and they may show a relatively weak trend even when other non-ferrous metals are strong. However, the impact of overseas inventories needs to be monitored [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - Spot: The LME zinc spot premium is -$28.21 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 24,210 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -105 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 140 yuan/ton to 24,220 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -95 yuan/ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 130 yuan/ton to 24,220 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -95 yuan/ton [2] - Futures: On March 10, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 24,505 yuan/ton, closed at 24,415 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 104,691 lots, and the holding volume was 74,747 lots. The highest price during the day was 24,525 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 24,300 yuan/ton [3] - Inventory: As of March 10, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven locations monitored by SMM was 262,200 tons, an increase of 5,900 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 98,950 tons, an increase of 4,150 tons from the previous trading day [4]