地缘释放缓和信号，烯烃大幅回落

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Trump signaled that "the war will end soon", and the G7 group discussed releasing strategic reserves, causing market sentiment to cool rapidly, leading to a significant correction in international oil prices and a collective pullback in chemical sector varieties. However, the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved, and the risk of raw material supply interruption still exists. Supply - side contraction expectations and cost - side support remain. If the Middle East situation does not cool down, more domestic olefin enterprises may reduce their loads [2] - Currently, the supply of raw material propane for propylene is tight, and the losses of PDH device profits are deepening, increasing the expectation of PDH shutdown. The demand from downstream industries is picking up. In the short term, with the Strait of Hormuz not clearly unobstructed, cost increases, and a tight supply - demand pattern, there is a risk of market fluctuations [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 7473 yuan/ton (- 225), the East China spot price of propylene is 8875 yuan/ton (- 825), the North China spot price is 8800 yuan/ton (- 950), the East China basis of propylene is 1402 yuan/ton (- 600), and the Shandong basis is 1327 yuan/ton (- 725) [1] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Propylene capacity utilization is 73% (+ 1%), the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan is 229 US dollars/ton (+ 20), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 98 US dollars/ton (+ 49), and the import profit is - 363 yuan/ton (+ 46) [1] 3. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - PP powder capacity utilization is 27% (+ 3.67%), production profit is - 550 yuan/ton (- 350); propylene oxide capacity utilization is 80% (+ 0%), production profit is - 580 yuan/ton (- 25); n - butanol capacity utilization is 86% (+ 1%), production profit is 1732 yuan/ton (+ 139); octanol capacity utilization is 95% (- 2%), production profit is 656 yuan/ton (+ 684); acrylic acid capacity utilization is 79% (- 1%), production profit is 4199 yuan/ton (+ 586); acrylonitrile capacity utilization is 75% (- 1%), production profit is - 86 yuan/ton (+ 924); phenol - acetone capacity utilization is 88% (+ 0%), production profit is 2500 yuan/ton (+ 1790) [1] 4. Propylene Inventory - The in - plant inventory of propylene is 44640 tons (- 330) [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously go long on hedging at low prices - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None [3]